These are two New York Times headlines from a few hours apart on Monday:

“Oil Prices Fall After Trump Says That Iran War is ‘Very Complete’”

“Trump Walks Back Idea That War Is Near End: U.S Gains ‘Not Enough’”

Now, Trump did not walk anything back, because that would require him to take a coherent position about anything ever, which he doesn’t and probably can’t. Trump just says whatever he feels will gain him the most personal advantage in any given moment. This fact about him has been obvious to anyone since *at least* he announced his candidacy for president more than ten years ago.

But markets seem to have latched on to Trump’s first statement, that the war is nearly over, as if it were some sort of factual statement about reality and Trump’s intentions.

Oil prices have fallen, stock prices have risen…while Iran has started mining the Strait of Hormuz.

A fifth of global oil exports travel through the strait.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/10/politics/iran-begins-laying-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz

Here’s a recent statement by Savita Subramanian from Bank of America:

"We thought the administration was going to be focused on affordability and quelling inflation, and that seems to be the opposite of what's actually happening."

Why would you think that? Why would you ever think that, much less in 2026, with uears and years of evidence that Trump is incapable of telling the truth or understanding things?

Because they hear what they want to hear.

Here’s another great line, this one from JP Morgan Chase:

“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever. To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”

Because something would be very bad, it not only would not happen, it could not happen, so it’s not even worth thinking about.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/persian-gulf-oil-squeeze-d9a39190