☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆Qatar warns that oil could double to $150 a barrel and 'bring down the economies of the world'
queermunist she/herHighest oil got was in July 2008 at $147.27
Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008
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those are rookie numbers, I bet we’ll blow past that in a few weeks
Adjusted for inflation in today’s dollars: $220
That’s totally doable, if Hormuz stays closed, and I see no reason for Iran to reopen it, prices are gonna keep surging. Most of the energy going to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan was passing through there. They don’t even have large reserves. So, once they start running out, it’s gonna be a bloodbath.
The difference between 2008 and today is that the US is a net exporter, which means the US has the option cut its exports to keep oil prices down at home. That’ll have fascinating effects on global oil markets.
Yup, the US is largely self sufficient in oil and gas right now. However, if the US cuts the vassals loose, that’s going to be disastrous as well. The US has significant dependence on trade with G7 countries, and if they start collapsing economically, then there’s going to be blow back in the US as well. It’ll likely be a bit more delayed, but I can’t see how the US escapes this unscathed.
cfgaussianFossil fuel markers are global. Unless the US stops all of its oil producers from engaging in international trade, they cannot prevent prices from rising in the US. The fossil fuel lobby is extremely powerful in the US and it is very unlikely they would allow the state to take such an aggressive action against free trade, as it would deprive them of a golden opportunity for enormous profits. Not to mention it sets an incredibly dangerous precedent of the state exercising power over the private sector. And even if they do stop or severely curtail exports, that will have even bigger consequences on the US through the cascading effects of a global economic crash, since the US is highly embedded in the global economy.
Markets are global, but North America is somewhat shielded as the continent only has so much export capacity. Along with now controlling Venezuelan oil trade, I can see the USA picking winners and losers.
Unless the US stops all of its oil producers from engaging in international trade
It could, though. The fossil fuel lobby would oppose this, of course, but they’re not the only lobby. Never mind the fact that all of Trump’s supporters drive oversized vehicles. Amazon doesn’t want high fuel prices, neither do Uber or DoorDash, neither do GM or Ford or Stelantis, neither do farmers, neither do construction companies, neither do data centers, neither do military contractors or the Pentagon, and so on. There are a lot of economic and political forces that want to keep fuel prices down.
This would begin a collapse of the old economic order, of course. If Canada and Mexico could be convinced to go along with this, lead by the US’s new “hemispheric dominance” strategy, we might see oil prices totally diverge between East and West.
I have no idea what is going to happen.
I got faith in MAGA. They are virtuosically incompetent, and will surely fuck this up far better than anyone in history.
countries that allow US to operate bases on their territory are not victims
oh 100%, they were attacked completely unprovoked
none, especially not saudi arabia allowed thier airspace to be used for attacks.
and SA doesnt have american bases.
lnxtx (xe/xem/xyr)First to turn off are those AI data centers.
Hahahaha we’ll see
ISOmorphProbably not quite what you had in mind, but that might actually happen. The saudis are the main investors in AI. If they can’t sell their oil, they might be forced to pull out. It could burst the AI bubble all together and crash the US economy.
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mlgIt would be spectacular if Iran destroys the petrodollar.
The US economy has been essentially immune to such crashes because they can just print more money since everyone trades in USD. 2008 was financially devastating for the average person, but banks maked a metric ton of money and the government bailed them out of any losses.
But one of the big reasons everyone trades in USD is because all of the oil shill states only sell for USD, and they only sell for USD so they can invest it directly into the US economy.
If buying oil from said shill states is no longer an option, there’s no reason to keep using USD since the alternatives are Russia, Iran, and formerly Venezuela.
The increased energy costs will also likely cause an increased investment burn rate.
Don’t threaten us with a good time.