Substance_P

Polymarket needs some serious regulation.

https://lemmy.world/post/43905182

Mar 6 at 3:22amWeb
Show threadhenfredemarsMar 6
This seems like a great argument to just never use the under-regulated betting markets.
Show threadRemember_the_toothMar 6
I don’t like gambling. I worry about regulation driving it underground, though. I’d rather just see winnings taxed heavily, immediately and without exception or deduction. Invest it in social safety nets and it’s effectively forcing the winners to share their loot with the most vulnerable of the people they’re victimizing.
Show threadminfapperMar 6
won’t that still have the same effect of driving it underground though?
Show threadRemember_the_toothMar 6
Yeah, to a certain extent. The nice things about taxes is that they can be dialed up and down for effect. Complete, tax-free deregulation would obviously be crazy. 100% tax would pretty much be a ban and drive it all underground. Somewhere between 0 and 100, there’s an equilibrium point. Also, conflict of interest should be regulated. I don’t need police betting on how many gunshot victims there will be today.
Show threadpomegranatefernMar 6

Gambling, like a lot of other things, is a high dopamine reward behavior which can be fun recreationally but also lead to serious addictions. Prohibition-only approaches to things like this tend to just lead to it becoming a widespread source of funds for organized crime, and so I tend to favor a public health perspective which involves legalization with heavy regulation and taxation + behavioral health support as a part of a robust safety net.

That having been said, this to me is a strong indication that there are some things it should not be legal to bet on.

But also I’m also pretty sure that this is illegal under the Commodities Exchange Act already? So this feels like either a loophole in emphatic need of closing, or, more likely, the law just no longer fucking mattering under this administration.

Show threadBronzebeardMar 7
Except these bets can actually drive behavior. And they’re betting on the murder of thousands. It’s Incentivizing the acts. They need to be stopped
Show threadOwOarchistMar 6
Unless you’re privy to some insider information you can make bets about. Then you absolutely should.
Show threadSaveTheTuaHawkMar 7

When is any unregulated market for anything a good idea?

Simps gamble. No one has stopped that in 2000 years.

Show threadTempus FugitMar 6
I refuse to participate in Biff Tannen’s world! I know I’m likely to be the minority, but I’m a stubborn SOAB!
Show threadtektiteMar 6
System of a Bitch
Show threadTempus FugitMar 6
“Psycho groupie, cocaine crazy!”
Show threadkingofrasMar 6
Come on, why did you use an AI tool to make his nose look like this.
Show threadgezeroMar 6
The purpose is to give incentive to knowledgeable parties to let us know up front. In a corrupt government status like the current one we should be happy that we can get few hours heads up before the bombs start falling.
Show threadxxce2AAbMar 6
Polymarket needs some serious eradication.
Show threadsmegMar 6
Correct answer. It creates extremely perverse incentives in society to allow people to bet on large scale harm.
Show threadSquirrelsdrivemenutsMar 6
Wait… why the fuck is there a betting site where you can bet on wars starting. What in the immoral fuck is that even about?
Show threadFinal RemixMar 6
You can bet on anything, man. It’s like Money Plane but with words writing.
Show threadSquirrelsdrivemenutsMar 6
My innocent european ass has never heard of money plane or polymarket before.
Show threadFinal RemixMar 6
www.youtube.com/watch?v=m95a7PraxF8
Money Plane Movie Clip

YouTube
Show threadSaveTheTuaHawkMar 6

It’s been a thing in UK for decades. Big with morons.

Show threada_non_monotonic_functionMar 7
People actually throw money away on this sort of shit?
Show threadSaveTheTuaHawkMar 7
$39M on JC alone.
Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
Jesus fucking christ.
Show threada_non_monotonic_functionMar 8
Fuck me.
Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
Can you imagine having to pay out after some fake ass Jesus returned.
Show threada_non_monotonic_functionMar 8
You are giving me an idea…
Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
DO IT
Show threadAnUnusualRelicMar 7
I don’t participate, but look at the odds on various things. It’s entertaining.
Show threadDreamlandLividityMar 6
Creative interpretation of reality. Polymarket pretends it is not a betting platform, since betting on wars and similar shit is banned even in US.
Show threadmercMar 6

Boiling frogs.

  • Farmers want a way to sell their crops before harvest time to guarantee a certain price, so they’re protected by unpredictable swings in price. A market is set up for commodity futures, so a speculator can take that deal, and maybe make a lot of money if the price she sets with the farmer is well below the actual market value. This is seen as a good thing because the farmer gets to reduce their risk, while someone else gets the opportunity to make money by taking that risk on the farmer’s behalf.
  • This system expands like a cancer, so professional investors are soon buying derivatives on all kinds of things. Sometimes this is arguably good for the world, but many times it’s just complex gambling, and it results in the housing-based financial collapse of 2007-08. Hedge funds and investment bankers manage to convince the regulators to let them keep the system as is, despite the crash.
  • Wall street pushes to allow random people with no financial power, no training, no knowledge to also be able to get involved with derivatives, because having idiots on the other side of their bets is great for their bottom lines. It’s much easier to make money from some random person using an app than it is to make money off another professional investor.
  • Some clever person manages to reskin a gambling app as if it were an investment app, and allows people to “buy derivatives contracts” on just about anything. Nobody honestly believes that this is anything other than gambling. But, the regulators are all compromised and toothless, so now you can gamble on any of the 4 horsemen: war, famine, death or disease.
    • Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
    I mean I actually like derivatives for hedging. I used to get 6 year contracts for electricity prices for my business. They saved my ass during covid/ Russia war. Prices climbed so fucking high that power contract became a financial asset. I like the fact that I can insure my stock portfolio with put contracts, I like that I can generate some income selling call contracts, and yes sometimes I even do short term speculation with options. If it’s good enough for Nancy Pelosi, it’s good enough for me! that being said it has gone way to far and there should be way more regulations and oversight because it is just a big casino and robin hood would let a child buy calls if it could access the phone.
    Show threadSaveTheTuaHawkMar 6

    It’s about the USA in 2026? Been in jail or something?

    Show threadWanderWisleyMar 6
    Damn the price of cocaine is about to skyrocket.
    Show threadieatpwnsMar 6
    And kalshi and he’s starting his own.
    Show threadPhoenixzMar 6
    Ant sources on this? I already believe you, because it’s a trump, but I’d like to see the evidence so we have something more to slap into magat faces
    Show threadNihilsineNefasMar 6
    Show threadHasturInYellowMar 6

    Always have been.

    I have simply determined that I will have my pound of flesh before the end.

    Show threadCannedYeetMar 6
    FWIW Polymarket took down that specific prediction.
    Show threadNihilsineNefasMar 6

    Took down or made private?

    Either way I want every person alive to know the names and faces of anyone that put money on it.

    But unfortunately I know that won’t happen, especially when the chief in diaper himself is willing to bomb an elementary school full of kids to distract people from the fact he diddled kids from active warzones and destabilised countries

    Show threadmercMar 6
    There’s always someone on the other side of these bets. How is it that people keep betting on things like this when they know that insiders like this are the ones they’re sometimes betting against?
    Show threadSaveTheTuaHawkMar 6
    The point is this bullshit market can influence decisions, like whether to have a nuclear strike on Iran -you think a Trump family member would not try to cash in on that?
    Show threadGuyIncognitoMar 6
    Just ban it, gambling used to be illegal in a lot of places.
    Show threadPalmTreeIsBestTreeMar 6
    Please ban all online betting and only make it legal at places where you have to actually go there in person to do. Impulse gambling on smartphones and prediction markets are straight cancer to society.
    Show threadGuyIncognitoMar 6
    Hear hear!
    Show threadThe D QuuuuuillMar 8
    and hear, here!
    Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
    stares at crypto markets
    Show threadMulligrubsMar 6

    It used to be illegal to run away from your plantation, too.

    No reason to outlaw this, why bother? People have always made wagers, and they enjoy it.

    Show threadYappyMonotheistMar 6
    You’re stuck in the aesthetic phase of development.
    Show threadMulligrubsMar 7
    Housen is a poseur
    Show threadGuyIncognitoMar 7
    People enjoy making wagers with friends and acquaintance. Gambling apps are highly addictive commercial products which have negative value to society. Ban them and shoot the owners and shareholders.
    Show threadMulligrubsMar 7

    Food is highly addictive. Video games are highly addictive. Sex is highly addictive.

    You are not “the decider” of which activity is of value to society or not, it’s of value to THEM.

    Instead, ban and shoot everyone who would want to ban and shoot other people for owning entertainment venues (like gambling).

    They’re more trouble than they are worth.

    Show threadGuyIncognitoMar 7
    Ban and shoot all libertarians while we’re at it.
    Show threadMulligrubsMar 10
    … and you would if you could, too… and Republicans… and then the religious… and then Independents… and so on… and that’s why we don’t trust you with anything more than a scooter. NO LICENSE FOR YOU
    Show threadGuyIncognitoMar 10
    Republicans yes, but I don’t know how you got “independents” (whatever that is) and the religious out of it.
    Show threadTronBronsonMar 8
    well because a lot of the wagers are easily manipulated by the same insiders who own the platform? No ones stopping you from betting with your pals. We don’t want a fake rigged market place that’s a black hole of money.
    Show threadMulligrubsMar 10

    Insiders and wagers go hand in hand, that’s all part of the odds.

    It’s not a “fake rigged market place” OR the stock market is also a “fake rigged market place”.

    …and anti-gambling laws lead to lots of “stopping you from betting with your pals”, for example see all of human history, pick an era. Police don’t need a lot of incentive to seize all of your assets, it doesn’t matter. This is just another excuse to do so

    Show threadTronBronsonMar 11
    Ur telling me rich people write laws to relieve you of your assets? Oh no how long has this been happening?! One might say that legalizing polymarket was one of these actions. One might argue you should’ve never been allowed onto such a platform in the first place.
    Show threadAkasazhMar 6
    It’s only gambling if you don’t know the outcome!
    Show threadThe D QuuuuuillMar 8
    Polymarket and Kalshi are just an old mob numbers game but with the veneer of being accepted
    Show threadthethunderwolfMar 6
    So, monitor Polymarket for massive bets on things the US government could do, and mirror those bets.