Daniel FischerMar 3
#2024YR4 - Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data: https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.00449 -> "These candidate detections, not accounting for any currently-undetected Yarkovsky forces, predict a perilune of 22001 +/- 49 km and a perigee of 277534 +/- 46 km (relative to the center of each respective body) representing an improvement of > 300 times in the approach distance uncertainty above the existing orbit solution and, if confirmed, decisively ruling out a lunar impact in 2032" -> https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/41437
2024 YR4: Identification of Possible Precoveries in 2016 IPTF Data

2024 YR4 is a 40-100 meter-diameter asteroid and former Torino Scale 3 object which currently has a roughly 4% chance of impacting the Moon on 2032 December 22, an event which recent studies suggest could pose a hazard on Earth due to impact ejecta. We present a search for, and identification of, potential precovery observations of the virtual lunar impactor in Intermediate Palomar Transient Facility (IPTF) survey data, as well as other publicly accessible surveys, dating from 2016. These candidate detections, not accounting for any currently-undetected Yarkovsky forces, predict a perilune of 22001 +/- 49 km and a perigee of 277534 +/- 46 km (relative to the center of each respective body) representing an improvement of > 300 times in the approach distance uncertainty above the existing orbit solution and, if confirmed, decisively ruling out a lunar impact in 2032. Using a matched filter tuned to 2024 YR4's predicted appearance in each image, we find the detection to be significant at Pnull = 5x10-9. The resultant possible orbit solution should be easy to confirm during 2024 YR4's 2028 approach to Earth, potentially greatly reducing the effort required by the planetary defense community at large to characterize 2024 YR4 before its potential lunar impact.

arXiv.org
Show threadDaniel Fischer
New observations of the #NearEarthAsteroid #2024YR4 with the #Webb Telescope are now also, like the recently discovered precovery positions, firmly excluding a crash into the Moon: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2026/03/05/new-nasa-asteroid-observations-eliminate-chance-of-2032-lunar-impact/ - all the studies (and speculations) about consequences for Earth of such a lunar impact are now merely an exercise. But one day ... ;-)
Mar 5 at 6:38pmWeb
Show threadDaniel FischerMar 6
So there is an upcoming novel about #asteroid #2024YR4 which has just sold its movie rights: https://gizmodo.com/the-author-behind-the-social-network-has-an-asteroid-movie-coming-out-2000730674 - wonder what will happen when the producers of #TheLastOrbit eventually figure out that it's not only no risk for Earth anymore (as has been known for a year now, of course) but also not for the Moon. Talk about bad timing ... ;-)
The Author Behind 'The Social Network' Has an Asteroid Movie Coming Out

'The Last Orbit,' written by Ben Mezrich, will hit the screen directed by 'Fantastic Four' helmer Matt Shakman.

Gizmodo
Show threadsidbMar 6
@cosmos4u With some work, we could still redirect it and avert this disastrous near miss