Judd Legum
1. The Iran War has already claimed the lives of 6 U.S. soldiers, hundreds of Iranians, and dozens of people in neighboring countries.

For others, it's been a money-making opportunity.
Mar 3 at 1:58pmWeb
Show threadJudd LegumMar 3
2. In the hours before the strike, six newly-created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket raked in nearly $1 million by betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28.

Many suspect these were insiders. The White House says no one in "Trump's orbit" placed bets.

https://popular.info/p/the-casino-fication-of-war
The casino-fication of war

On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran.

Popular Information
Show threadJudd LegumMar 3
3. Overall, “$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes” on Polymarket.

Moving forward, Polymarket is offering dozens of markets on war-related developments.
Show threadJudd LegumMar 3
4. On its website, Polymarket describes allowing wagers on acts of war as a public service, claiming it provides vital information to “those directly affected by the attacks.”
Show threadJudd LegumMar 3
5. Polymarket offers these bets via an off-shore platform because the CFTC any market “that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, [or] war.”

But Kalshi, which is fully regulated by the CFTC, has found workarounds.

https://popular.info/p/the-casino-fication-of-war
The casino-fication of war

On February 28, the United States and Israel began major combat operations in Iran.

Popular Information