It's by-election day!

You wouldn't normally care that much about a by-election, but this one in the Gorton & Denton constituency in Manchester is momentous.

One of three things could happen overnight: Labour holds the seat, Greens win, or Reform wins.

Labour isn't likely to win, but they're polling a very strong third, I suspect mostly out of inertia, so shouldn't be dismissed. This is such an unforced error for them, though, because this by-election was supposed to be Andy Burnham's road back to Parliament and a probable leadership challenge. So obviously Starmer blocked it. If he hadn't, every indication is that Labour would have won this by a landslide. Instead they're reduced to posting fake polls trying to scare people into voting for them instead of the Greens to keep Reform out. It's very sad. Anyway, a Labour win would be a vindication for Starmer's current course, and we could expect his leadership to stay secure and generally damaging to the British people until the next crisis.

Reform has somehow managed to parachute in a candidate for this seat with even less charisma than Starmer, but this never mattered for Reform voters. Every vote for Reform UK Ltd is a vote for Farage and violent xenophobia and nothing else matters. They're polling second, neck and neck with the Greens and with Labour right behind them, and if they win, it's not going to matter much for Parliament, but the Starmer government is no doubt going to take it as a signal to tack right even harder.

And then there's the Greens. They're very slightly ahead in the polls, and are running an actual human being as their candidate. I could go on about the meteoric rise of Zack Polanski and their actual anticapitalist politics, but all you really need to know is that if the Greens take this seat, it's going to be a crushing body blow for Starmer, and it's quite likely his premiership won't survive it.

So, on the off chance you're part of the Gorton & Denton electorate, please go vote today and put a Green stake through the heart of New Labour. This is important.