Mastodawn

Note: what we know about how real nuclear #wargames are played by those with actual high-level experience and responsibilities strongly suggests that escalation to the use of even one #nuclear weapon is very unlikely, and often requires that game "umpires" practically force the players to escalate.

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:qi3uhneb2cz77ibwnzailb22/post/3mfqwwdxgus23

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mbpaz Feb 26

@jmkorhonen.fi
FWIW: I recently attended an UN event where delegates from China, USA and the UK with responsibilities in nuclear arsenals openly discussed implications of AI in nuclear weapons management, deployment and usage.

A "wargames, the movie" scenario is not realistic, but on the other hand biases and misleading suggestions in AI decision support systems are DANGEROUS.

BTW, it was easily the most hair-rising meeting in my whole life, and I have been through some things.

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Janne M. Korhonen

Yeah. One hopes the adoption of "expert systems" also reduces some risks. Because those biases etc. also create or increase risks. OTOH the question should always be "how much the situation changes compared to the present." Trump having The Button is still a MUCH greater risk.

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mbpaz Feb 26

@jmkorhonen.fi what scares me is precisely the situation where an AI decision support system suggests "there are indications of an aggression and the recommended response is a massive launch", and the human in charge is stupid enough to disregard obvious hints that the suggestion is absurd.