ThefuzzyFurryComrade

OpenAI's Planned Cash Burn

https://pawb.social/post/40319596

Feb 26 at 2:33amWeb
Show threadbraydanFeb 26
This chart ugly
Show threadWiddershinsFeb 26
It may be ugly but it isn’t too confusing
Show threadSaharaMaleikuhmFeb 26
But the bigger the burn the bigger the profits, right? RIGHT?
Show threadYondozaFeb 26
“If we can just make an AI that can overthrow humanity it won’t matter how much cash we burn!”
Show threadTaviFeb 26

I thought about it for a while and decided, nah. It’s easy to dismiss offhand that these people are just stupid, but if you think about it a bit longer, these people aren’t just stupid, they are really, really, really, stupid. The model architecture is bad, the data is poisoned, improvement is O(data^2), and performance gains stalled in 2024. No AGI in sight or even a viable method of getting there.

They looked at these charts and thought, the others spent a lot of money, then made a lot of money. If we spend a LOT of money, we’ll make EVEN MORE!

Why don’t we put up the WeWork or MoviePass charts hmmm?

Show threadRenatFeb 26
Sam Altman will became the poorest man in the world with 218B debt.
Show threadYondozaFeb 26
Oh sweet summer child, he will have no personal debt on failure, only personal profit on success.
Show threadjlow (he / him)Feb 26
🎵 It’s the maaagic of capitalism! 🎶
Show threaddismay3915Feb 26
I dont understand anything from this. Can someone explain?
Show threaddimjimFeb 26
I could be completely wrong here, but it looks like the chart is comparing companies that go into debt to get started, and then make back that profit once their service/product is out there. OpenAI presumably has made zero profit yet, so they’ve only accomplished going $218B in debt.
Show threadRouthinatorFeb 26

Cashburn is like projecting profit but instead of profit you are just going to burn the pool of money you have so much your profits won’t mean anything. Anything black on this line is profit, red is cash burn. All companies start in a cash burn state, but if you look at the ones listed, the initial cash burn when they launched was relatively small.

OpenAI is planning to burn more money than most of them profited.

Show threadK[r]ukenbergFeb 26
9.3 billion isn’t small. 218 billion is just stupid.
Show threadEvil_ShrubberyFeb 26
Remember kids, this is capital being offered to create a monopoly (in the sense of creating a non-free market/environment with users mostly not having a choice/being forced to use AI), not for innovation or some intrinsic added value.
Show threadHotzillaFeb 26

They will just do IPO and get trillion dollar valuation, and poof, they are profitable.

Ad-apalypse is coming, they will squeeze all the pennies from your data and prompts. Personalized ad response to prompt.

If you have no soul, get ready to buy malware ads to bad JS libraries suggested by AI