I think this is one of those things that's stunning, in all the worst ways, and most of them aren't obvious.

Let's start with the basics: there are about 5.5 million trans Americans. This means that *nearly 10% of the entire trans population of the nation* has moved.

Just

Last

Year

@Impossible_PhD I would've left the US faster if I could. I had to leave for the States midway through immigrating, got denied entry, and had to start the process from scratch in the US. Given that I'm literally just waiting on the PR card, I might have been able to be a card-carrying immigrant before 2025 ended if that didn't happen.

I lived in Chicago previously since 2017. Were it not for the way the election went and the federal policy changes, I would've died, ideally of old age, in Chicago. The city saved my life, but I got tired of being a Cassandra after over a year of begging every trans person I had interactions with to take this shit seriously, to prepare to either flee or face literal warfare.

While I may have been wrong about warfare, that's mostly because I overestimated how violent the response to what ICE is doing would be.

@disorderlyf @Impossible_PhD You are not wrong about warfare, it's just a "low intensity conflict" at this moment. It's not a cold civil war anymore though, it's more like the Troubles in Northern Ireland or the Years of Lead in Greece.

I cannot even keep track of all the assasinations and attempts anymore. We have had members of one party (the GOP) burning homes of members of their main rivals(the Dems) while those homes were occupied.

We've had Trump's Gestapo and SS (ICE and CPB)occupying multiple cities and battles fought in the streets to resist the occupations. In Minneapolis we are winning most of the battles but we've had three people shot with two dead by enemy forces there-JUST in Minneapolis and all in one month.

Armed National Guard on US streets are not an uncommon sight in many places, though to their credit blue state National Guard troops often seem to be deploying the "work to rule" style slowdown to avoid fighting for Trump. In DC there were National Guard patrols last fall studiously cleaning up litter from the roads while ICE got their ass kicked by a crowd less than a mile away.

If ICE or CBP shows up to kidnap a specific person and counterattack by resistance fighters pins them down while that person escapes, by definition that battle is a defeat for Trumpist forces. This is because they enter the battle with a specific goal and defenders prevented them from reaching that goal.

Trumpist forces are trying to make posessing anarchist literature a felony. A bill in Florida would make "material support" to any ideology on a ban list a FELONY. Such laws are enforced by roadside ambushes and armed house raids, both of which can turn into unpleasant surprises for the attackers at any time.

Multiple CBP offices were shot up last year (one right after the i\Inauguration), though the Texas Prarieland ICE detention center noise demo case with its unknown facts seems to have overshadowed all of thm.

We had the Tesla fires a year ago, in an early offensive against Trump and DOGE. The majority of the underground fighters behind those fires appear to have escaped.

Now we've had three fires (one with a propane tank in it) in potential ICE warehouses in barely over a week.

The real achievement in Minneapolis is this: the backbone of the fighting is not career activists but self-organized fed up civilians who became resistance fighters out of necessity. A full quarter of the city participated in the biggest general strike in some way and many businesses closed for the day. About 8% of the city did not show up for work that day. On the Northern Front, we are winning and Trump is losing, one battle at a time.

@LukefromDC @Impossible_PhD While I suspect you're right, I want to specify that what I expected when ICE/CBP did start shooting civilians was more more deadly and more one-sided. (at least, initially) I expected us to be at tens or hundreds or casualties within the first few months. I expected millions of unambiguous American citizens sheltering in place for fear of being shot for allegedly aiding "illegal" immigrants. (when I say unambiguous, I unfortunately mean white, given how racist the administration is in their enforcement) It's frankly a miracle I was wrong about that, that whistles and phone cameras were as effective as they have been.

It's almost entirely certain more people were shot and/or killed, given we learned of someone who got shot much sooner by ICE only just recently. I only hope that the success of nonviolent or far less violent action against CBP/ICE is indicative of how badly it'll go if things truly do escalate to the point where merely having a whistle and a phone won't be enough to prevent anyone from being shot.

@disorderlyf @Impossible_PhD In that situation you basically need a full infantry loadout, and knowledge (which I have) of how to use cover and concealment to deny your enemy a shot.

There ARE a lot of people sheltering in place now, mostly migrants themselves. One of the missions for the defenders of Minneapolis is delivering food and meds to them, no doubt also phone refill cards.

ICE will be in a world of shit themselves if they machinegun crowds or otherwise kill hundreds. As it stands they just got fire attacks on three of the warehouses they want to turn into concentration camps.

I think there are three possible outcomes here:
One is things pop off somewhere and escalate fast. Warning time might be measured in hours based on what we saw in January.

Another is the bosses pull back a little and we keep slugging away, slowly winning this conflict one battle at a time under the current rules of engagement. Yes, we are winning and Trump is losing howeve difficult the fight. A humiiating defeat in Minneapolis is just the thing to make it much harder for him to flatly attempt to cancel the November election

The third is the billionaires look over the brink of civil war, pull back in horror like they were staring into a mass grave, and yank Trump's MAGA meatheads back from the brink by the collar. When that happens GOP funding gets cut off and the whole rotten mess collapses.