i do not want to get into the business of posting LLM takes but very briefly:
It feels clear to me that some people* are getting value out of using LLMs for programming. Basically see https://simonwillison.net/'s whole blog. If I think about it purely on the basis of "in a vacuum, can this help me write programs", it seems like an exciting technology.
BUT...
(1/?)
(* it also feels clear that some people are NOT getting value out of LLMs, hoping to avoid flamewars about that please)
(continued from ^)
Google search doesn't work as well anymore because the results are full of LLM-generated articles? I hear about CEOs putting pressure on their teams to produce more faster because they've been told that AI will increase productivity?
it feels sad. even though I find LLMs useful sometimes, with all of the societal impacts it often feels like it isn't actually improving my life.
(2/?)
@b0rk It’s almost heartening to see history repeat (or rhyme), and I can report so:
Automation — and this is one, boy is it one — has a classic Gartner Hype Curve and like most industrialisation-Luddite* tensions, it ends up with more work / more jobs, not less / fewer.
*per the cliché, not the historical reality?
But first you have to discover if the automation is:
A. replacing a task that it can’t replace
B. making an existing task exist, but faster
C. making the impossible possible, a whole new task
Bosses (been there, 2000s) will spend a couple of years getting you to bang away at type A, until it proves impossible
They’ll want some good news out of that, and hopefully you’ll have a type C to show them. But first they’ll have to figure out how to fit it, which they will, if they’re good.
And type B will be a bit of a minority — the weird truth is though, that the type A stuff will stop getting done anyway because the world turns, and priorities shift … enpoopifies maybe
Real professionalism comes when irreplaceable practices are institutionalised and valued. Think plane safety, but only for jets. Train safety is higher at the top end too.
But you CAN automate: When trains go driverless, they convert DECADES after the hype and predictions were made. And then they embed all the process and procedure into the automation.
We gotta be more like that in IT.
Julia Evans
Christian Kent 𝘊𝘒 :＼﹥