moogalToday's the day my paid Google account expires.
Have backed everything up, so whatever happens I don't lose anything.
Not entirely clear if it'll just downgrade me to a free account or wipe it completely, but it's no great loss one way or another.
The answer is: it disables the account, rather than downgrading it. Which is fine, everything is backed up and it gives me the motivation I needed to migrate things across to other services. Authenticator still works, though I shifted everything to Authy last night.