What do you think is a realistic peaceful solution to the China-Taiwan issue?

https://sopuli.xyz/post/41594243

What do you think is a realistic peaceful solution to the China-Taiwan issue? - Sopuli

Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now. Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China. China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea. Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future. A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan remains as a separate country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that. What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?

China should accept Taiwans sovereignty and stop being such a little bitch. The end.
Lets be realistic. If the confederates ran away to Key West after the civil war, would the US accept a hostile state, backed by a hostile super-power, claiming to be the government of all of USA right off their coast?
They did even worse, they let them stay!
It’s not even key west it’s more like they ran away to Maine
Not sure why you’re copping some hate, but your analogy is pretty accurate.
Libs don’t actually care about the matter, they simply want to justify pre-existing positions, so anything that doesn’t support this feels hostile to them. In another comment thread I have someone who’s never been to Hong Kong asking me to provide citations about what HK is like.
What ‘pre-existing’ positions exactly?
In this case? <enemy of the west> bad. They don’t feel any need to learn about Taiwan or xinjiang or HK or Tibet beyond its utility in proving this, and certainly don’t care how it might affect the actual people living there.
I don’t think that HK, Xinjiang or Tibet are relevant here. My own position is that the Taiwanese don’t want to be part of the PRC. And that’s all that matters.
We have polling, it says the people of Taiwan overwhelmingly want staus quo. What they want doesn’t matter to you.

And do you also accept they don’t want to be part of the PRC?

Status quo is de-facto independence. But moreover, do you think the threats from the mainland over the prospect of the Taiwanese pursuing independence officially somewhat tempers and changes how the Taiwanese react to polls on this issue?

do you also accept they don’t want to be part of the PRC?

This being an option is contingent on the US not using them as a sacrificial pawn against China, which is what the “independence” option represents. The choice isn’t Chiba cs status quo vs “freedom and democracy”, its China vs status quo vs war, then China, and every warmongering lib here wants to fight China to the last drop of Taiwanese blood.

This being an option is contingent on the US not using them as a sacrificial pawn against China

How? Is maintaining the status quo being a “sacrificial pawn” against China?

which is what the “independence” option represents.

  • Why would the independence option inherently represent that?

  • I didn’t even refer to independence. You just said that: “We have polling, it says the people of Taiwan overwhelmingly want staus quo.” If that’s true, then do you also accept that by the same polling, the people of Taiwan do not want to be part of the PRC? Not a hard question to answer.

  • The choice isn’t Chiba cs status quo vs “freedom and democracy”, its China vs status quo vs war

    Okay? Seems to me that China would be the party blamable in that scenario, and no-one else.

    and every warmongering lib here wants to fight China to the last drop of Taiwanese blood.

    I don’t want to fight China. Most people here seem to support continuation of the status quo.

    Is maintaining the status quo being a “sacrificial pawn” against China?

    No, anything that would require China invade is being a sacrificial pawn, such as declaring independence, hosting a military base, anything that pulls Taiwan outside of China’s sphere essentially.

    Why would the independence option inherently represent that?

    Because China isn’t going to tolerate it’s own territory, right off its coast, being used as a forward operating base by a hostile country.

    I don’t want to fight China. Most people here seem to support continuation of the status quo.

    The people who are calling for Taiwan to do things that would result in immediate war, such as acquiring nukes or declaring independence are not supporting the continuation of the status quo.

    China seems happy with status quo followed by reunification “eventually”, Taiwan is happy with status quo, it’s literally only bloodthirsty western libs and 4% of Taiwan who want Taiwan to leave China entirely.

    No, anything that would require China invade is being a sacrificial pawn, such as declaring independence, hosting a military base, anything that pulls Taiwan outside of China’s sphere essentially.

    Why would that require China being a sacrificial pawn? What US military base in Taiwan are you currently referring to?

    Why is Taiwan inherently owed to China’s “sphere”?

    Because China isn’t going to tolerate it’s own territory, right off its coast, being used as a forward operating base by a hostile country.

    I imagine in the event of hypothetical official Taiwanese independence that they would agree to not load up the island with US military bases. That would be a pretty reasonable red line for China.

    The people who are calling for Taiwan to do things that would result in immediate war, such as acquiring nukes or declaring independence are not supporting the continuation of the status quo.

    Yes. Random people in a thread. They aren’t most people.

    Many are also being hyperbolic.

    China seems happy with status quo followed by reunification “eventually”, Taiwan is happy with status quo, it’s literally only bloodthirsty western libs and 4% of Taiwan who want Taiwan to leave China entirely.

    Overall it’s sbout 25% of Taiwanese people who aspire towards independence, and about 7-8% who want to “unify”. Do you accept that people in Taiwan do not want to join the PRC?

    If the Confederates managed to hold out for 60 years, reformed, democratised and abandoned their past and wanted to renounce their claim to the USA and become their own independent state under their own identity - I would support them in that.

    Taiwan is closer to being the Union in this analogy

    mmyes, the defeated right-wing nationalist warlordists are the Union in this analogy. very good.

    i would like to learn your secret: how do you become so informed on things you know nothing about?

    mmyes, the defeated right-wing nationalist warlordists are the Union in this analogy. very good.

    The comparison here is rooted who is the original, not their ideology. So in that sense, Taiwan would be the Union and Confederates would the the PRC.

    Let me guess, you don’t think they have a legal claim to the island under UN law?
    Are you implying UN law is even remotely relevant here? Or anywhere?
    International law is what the CCP claims gives them the right. So no, I am not implying, I am stating it is relevant. Even if you disagree with the law, how do you expect this to be resolved peacefully without the law?
    I don’t expect it to be resolved peacefully. Imperialism rarely is.
    Imperialism? How is this imperialism?
    World power attempting to subordinate annd subsume its neighbor by threats of invasion? How is it not imperialism?
    Because imperialism isn’t when invasion. You really should learn what words mean before you use them. Imperialism is a capitalist phenomena where high stage capitalist powers enforce(through force or other means) unequal exchange and super exploitation upon subordinate nations to extract super profits. The PRC has never done that.

    That’s just a nonsense definition invented by Stalin to apologize for his own imperialism. No one else uses that definition.

    Although arguably the PRC has done that even by this muddled definition.

    You’re just factually wrong.

    That definition wasn’t “invented by Stalin.” It comes from Lenin in Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, written in 1916, before the USSR even existed. Stalin didn’t “make it up.” Lenin analyzed imperialism as a specific stage of capitalism: monopoly capital, finance capital, export of capital, division of the world, and super-profits extracted from subordinate nations. That’s standard Marxist political economy, not a post-hoc excuse. The fact you’re this wrong about it is genuinely incredibly impressive.

    You’re also mixing up empires with modern imperialism. They are not the same thing.

    Rome conquered territory through pre-capitalist slavery and tribute. Modern imperialism works through banks, corporations, debt, unequal exchange, and enforced dependency. Capitalist imperialism is what matters on the modern age, not every conquest in human history. Saying “Rome doesn’t fit Lenin’s definition” isn’t a gotcha, it just shows you don’t understand what you’re talking about.

    Now on your snide comment about China.

    Imperialism today looks like this: exporting finance capital, imposing structural adjustment, extracting monopoly rents, enforcing dollar hegemony, surrounding the globe with military bases, and keeping whole regions permanently underdeveloped.

    China does none of that.

    The PRC doesn’t run IMF shock therapy. It doesn’t control global reserve currency. It doesn’t force privatization. It doesn’t maintain hundreds of overseas bases. It doesn’t drain super-profits from the Global South. Chinese investment is infrastructure-heavy, bilateral, and negotiated, which is exactly why so many formerly colonized countries prefer dealing with China over the West.

    Calling that “imperialism” is just liberal brainrot: “big country doing geopolitics = imperialism.”

    I hope you can grow up and learn and stop preaching arrogantly on things you clearly know less than 0 about I understand it’s the American way but it is incredibly frustrating to be constantly lectured by uneducated labour aristocrats.

    Thank you for your service o7

    Ok I’ll accept the correction, it was Lenin, not Stalin. Whatever. Two peas from the same pod.

    The word imperialism relates to empires. It predates Lenin’s work and its definition continues to be used in that way by most people outside of your tiny political faction. If you want to refer to it as capitalist imperialism or something that’s fine but it’s absurd to claim that Lenin’s work invalidates the long-standing use of the term to describe the behavior of empires before capitalism before and through to the modern time. Especially when your new definition invalidates virtually all of its historical uses.

    Calling Lenin and Stalin “two peas in a pod” is pure ignorance. Lenin was a theorist of imperialism and revolutionary strategy in a semi-feudal Russia. Stalin governed an already-existing socialist state under siege and focused on industrialization and survival. Their political contexts, priorities, and theoretical contributions were radically different. Collapsing them together just tells everyone you’ve never seriously engaged with either.

    Now about “dictionary imperialism.”

    Western dictionaries define imperialism as broadly as possible on purpose: “extending power,” “influence,” “big country doing stuff.” Why? Because that conveniently erases the material reality that Europe and the US built their wealth through capitalist imperialism, finance capital, colonial extraction, unequal exchange, and permanent underdevelopment of the Global South. If imperialism just means “strong states exert power,” then suddenly everyone is equally guilty and nobody has to confront who actually runs the system.

    Imperialism only has value as an analytical concept when it means something specific.

    Lenin’s definition does exactly that: monopoly capital + finance capital + export of capital + division of the world + super-profits from subordinate nations. That explains the modern world. Your dictionary definition doesn’t explain anything.

    We already have words for generic force: war, conquest, invasion.

    “Imperialism” exists to describe a capitalist global structure, not your vibes-based “power is bad” framework.

    You’re hiding behind dictionary entries because you don’t want to deal with political economy.

    This isn’t a semantic debate. You’re choosing a deliberately vague definition because it lets Western countries off the hook and lets you posture without understanding systems.

    Honestly, grow up. Stop lecturing people while proudly demonstrating you haven’t studied the topic. Being arrogant doesn’t make you informed, it just makes you loud.

    Answering primarily because I don’t want people to see your comment and fall for misinformation, I’m largely repeating what I’ve said to you elsewhere.

    The word imperialism relates to empires. It predates Lenin’s work and its definition continues to be used in that way by most people outside of your tiny political faction.

    This is just Eurocentrism. The majority of the world understands imperialism more in line with Lenin’s analysis, and describing Marxism-Leninism as “tiny” when it is the ideology governing the largest economy in the world by purchasing power parity is absurd. Imperialism does predate Lenin, Lenin built his work off of others that had begun to analyze the formation of the imperialist stage of capitalism.

    If you want to refer to it as capitalist imperialism or something that’s fine but it’s absurd to claim that Lenin’s work invalidates the long-standing use of the term to describe the behavior of empires before capitalism before and through to the modern time. Especially when your new definition invalidates virtually all of its historical uses.

    This is wrong. Lenin analyzed the imperialist stage of capitalism, he did not invalidate prior forms of imperialism. Lenin scientifically analyzed imperialism as it relates to late-stage capitalism using Marxist methodology. He did not claim Rome wasn’t imperialist, just that it was a different mode of production with a different set of processes in place that makes it qualitatively distinct from the imperialist phase of capitalism.

    I am using the word imperialism as the dictionary defines it, not your weird made up version which you unilaterally declare correct in contradiction to the vast majority of English speakers.

    In other words, you’re accepting purely what is seen as valid by the western bourgeoisie with respect to how they get their vast riches. This is a semantic game, when Marxists are arguing against real, observed phenomena that behave in specific, observable ways, not the mere word itself. If we only accepted bourgeois framing of everything, then we could make the same reductive statements about anarchism, critique of capitalism, etc that you’re making of the imperialist stage of capitalism.

    As I said elsewhere, I think it would be a good idea for you to read Imperialism, the Current Highest Stage of Capitalism for yourself. This isn’t a “read theory” argument, I know you can’t force people to read if they don’t want to, but instead a suggestion for you to understand why Marxists analyze the behavior of late-stage capitalism this way. Even watching this summary video by Red Pen would do wonders, and it’s only ~55 minutes long (as compared to the 3-5 hours of reading the original text itself).

    Read Imperialism, the current highest stage of capitalism(Vladimir Lenin) on ProleWiki

    The book Imperialism, the current highest stage of capitalism was written by Lenin between January and June 1916 in Zürich. According to Russian native speakers...

    ProleWiki

    weird made up version

    Because your version was what? Handed down by God?

    That’s just a nonsense definition invented by Stalin to apologize for his own imperialism.

    Not only was the USSR not imperialist, but it was Lenin that formulated the Marxist analysis of imperialism, not Stalin, and Lenin further relied heavily on John A. Hobson’s formulation of imperislism. Lenin took Hobson’s base observations and re-analyzed using a Marxist frame. Stalin had no part in that, and it seems like you’re trying to invent a reason to not take Marxist analysis of imperialism seriously. Lenin’s work on imperialism predated the USSR, and actively informed how the bolsheviks struggled for socialism in tsarist Russia.

    This is extremely easy to verify, so I’m not sure where you got this idea from. Either you genuinely didn’t know, and thus didn’t care enough to learn or verify, or you made it up knowing how easy it is to debunk. Neither points to reasonable argument.

    The absurdity here is that by this definition classical empires like Rome didn’t even engage in imperialism.

    The Roman Empire was pre-capitalist, and thus its mechanisms for extraction were entirely different from what Marxists analyze as modern-day imperialism. Call it whatever you wish, Marxists do not critique what we call imperialism because of its name, but because of its function as the primary contradiction driving global struggle and development today.

    Although arguably the PRC has done that even by this muddled definition.

    What you call “muddled” is in fact a far more scientific analysis than “big country bully small.” Further, no, the PRC does not fall into the Marxist analysis of imperialism.

    You’re right, Lenin, not Stalin. The two are very ideologically similar so I hope you’ll forgive my mistake. It doesn’t change the validity of my argument however.

    Any analysis that automatically rejects 90% of historical imperialism as suddenly not imperialism is unserious. If you wish to call it capitalist imperialism that would be one thing but one obscure and frankly not all that serious theorist doesn’t just get to tell everyone else in the world they’re suddenly using a word wrong just because they decided to and because it’s convenient for their, yes, imperialist politics.

    You’re right, Lenin, not Stalin. The two are very ideologically similar so I hope you’ll forgive my misremembering. It doesn’t change the validity of my argument however. You can change Stalin for Lenin in my original comment and it remains true.

    It changes your argument entirely. You claimed Stalin made it up to justify “soviet imperialism,” ie that it was an unscientific definition created for the purpose of justifying actions after the fact. The truth, on the other hand, is that analysis of imperialism predated the USSR, and was used to help analyze tsarist Russia’s place in the world and wage a successful revolution, because it was a scientific analysis of imperialism.

    Any analysis that automatically rejects 90% of historical imperialism as suddenly not imperialism is unserious.

    That’s not what Lenin’s analysis of imperialism does, though. You’re doing the thing where you confidently make a statement easily debunked, which leads me to believe that you either have no concern for accuracy, or instead are deliberately making things up. Roman imperialism was different in form and function to what Marxists recognize as the imperialist stage of capitalism.

    If you wish to call it capitalist imperialism that would be one thing but one obscure and frankly not all that serious theorist doesn’t just get to tell everyone else in the world they’re suddenly using a word wrong just because they decided to and because it’s convenient for their, yes, imperialist politics.

    Again, no, Lenin developed the Marxist analysis of imperialism in the context of the coming inter-imperialist war (World War I), and the successful analysis of imperialism helped establish socialism. There was no USSR, so you couldn’t even accuse Lenin of trying to justify “soviet imperialism,” which doesn’t exist anyways.

    Are you being genuine, or have you made up your mind already and are making things up as you go to justify that? Honest question, because you’re doubling and tripling down on this.

    I got a lot of people attacking me right now so I didn’t read as carefully as I should have, so I didn’t know it was a concept created before Lenin came into power. That changes my understanding of the context in which he created it, specifically.

    However, that doesn’t change the fact that auth-left people use this confusing language that is in total contradiction to how the rest of the anglosphere uses the word exactly as it’s being used here–to deflect from actions that are very obviously of the same nature as historical imperialism. Yet because the PRC claims to be socialist, suddenly we ignore all of the power dynamics and all of the coercion and decide this is benign simply because it supposedly doesn’t match Lenin’s definition.

    Such that even when it does match the common definition, I get tons of people attacking me and saying I don’t know what imperialism is when I’m not even using the word in the Marxist sense. Marxism isn’t of much interest to me, so yeah, I’m not an expert on it. That is not relevant to the fact that China’s attempts to crush Taiwanese autonomy and seize control of the island are textbook imperialism.

    I got a lot of people attacking me right now so I didn’t read as carefully as I should have, so I didn’t know it was a concept created before Lenin came into power. That changes my understanding of the context in which he created it, specifically.

    I understand that you’re flustered, and you feel attacked. It’s good that you’re changing your understanding to reflect new information, rather than reflexively dismissing it. My advice, if you’ll hear it, is to try to research things more before saying potentially inflammatory things about them, and this type of situation happens much less frequently.

    However, that doesn’t change the fact that auth-left people use this confusing language that is in total contradiction to how the rest of the anglosphere uses the word exactly as it’s being used here–to deflect from actions that are very obviously of the same nature as historical imperialism.

    There’s 2 major factors here:

  • Lenin’s analysis of imperialism isn’t at all in total contradiction. It’s a more developed, scientific analysis of late-stage capitalism. Marxist analysis of capitalism isn’t mainstream in the English-speaking world either, yet it’s important because it accurately explains the processes of capitalism. I presume that you’re more anarchist inclined, the anarchist analysis of society isn’t mainstream either. If we hold your idea that being mainstream in English is synonymous with validity, then we’d be trapped into capitalist analysis of everything.

  • Marxists analyze imperialism scientifically not so as to deflect, but instead to understand how it develops, where it’s heading to, and what contradictions are at play. Dialectically, imperialism is dying while the global south is rising.

  • Yet because the PRC claims to be socialist, suddenly we ignore all of the power dynamics and all of the coercion and decide this is benign simply because it supposedly doesn’t match Lenin’s definition.

    This isn’t true, either. The PRC is socialist, not because it claims to be, but because public ownership is the principle aspect of the economy and the working classes control the state. The PRC isn’t imperialist, not simply because it doesn’t match what one guy said, but because said guy accurately analyzed an existing phenomenon and that phenomenon is not present in the PRC.

    Why is it that countries participating in BRI rapidly develop and escape underdevelopment, while western IMF loans perpetuate underdevelopment? Why are the results so different? Marxism is not a dogma, we don’t twist reality to meet theory. Dialectical materialism does not tell us the answers, but tells us where to look, and that reality must be testef.

    I think it would be a good idea for you to read Imperialism, the Current Highest Stage of Capitalism for yourself. This isn’t a “read theory” argument, I know you can’t force people to read if they don’t want to, but instead a suggestion for you to understand why Marxists analyze the behavior of late-stage capitalism this way. Even watching this summary video by Red Pen would do wonders, and it’s only ~55 minutes long (as compared to the 3-5 hours of reading the original text itself).

    Read Imperialism, the current highest stage of capitalism(Vladimir Lenin) on ProleWiki

    The book Imperialism, the current highest stage of capitalism was written by Lenin between January and June 1916 in Zürich. According to Russian native speakers...

    ProleWiki
    Are you unaware of the history of Taiwan? How it became “independent”?
    I am familiar. How is that relevant here?
    How is it relevant? Are you serious? How are you claiming this is imperialism? It’s an island that a murderous dictator fled to after losing a bloody civil war. It was then recognized as “China” at the UN for years. Like how is reunification==imperialism in your mind?
    Forceful conquering by military might or other coercive means makes it imperialism. There is no history that could make it otherwise.
    Are you like 15?
    What if I am? Very ageist question.
    Not helping your credibility
    So Ukraine retaking Donbas would be imperialism?

    Please consult the graph:

    Let me guess, you think the UN matters more than the people living there?
    Nah, just think people who are ignorant of their own laws should think more before they make their ignorance more widely known.
    Yes because the only possibly reason someone might not support a law they live under, is because they are ignorant of it
    I don’t really care if they do, to be honest. I value self-determination more.
    Well Taiwan sees itself as part of mainland China, just not a part of the communist regime
    Not anymore really, the Taiwanese government has abandoned claims to the mainland.
    Abandoning claims is not the same as abandoning the view that they belong
    I mean wasn’t it largely peaceful in the past? From China’s perspective they only need to act if Taiwan or other countries make public statements challenging their legal claim to the island, it is better for China to wait as the power dynamics are shifting in their favor. It is only the west that wants to force this issue to come to head now, while they still have a comparative advantage - but even now if China wants Taiwan there is little we can do keep that from happening (though the humanitarian cost would be staggering).
    Taiwan’s economy is like 98% reliant on China. China could drain Taiwan dry without ever setting foot on that island. Taiwan will negotiate a deal with Xi. They may like it or not.
    China is maybe a third of their trade…not 98%
    Username checks out
    We have actual data on Taiwanese economy but clearly you know better. 98% reliant? I trust that wholeheartedly!
    A peaceful and realistic solution? Taiwan develops a strategic nuclear deterrent. They’re already a near-nuclear country and an industrial and technological powerhouse. A nuclear bomb is fully within their capability, and they already have abundant supplies of all the precursor materials in their possession. The most realistic solution to the Taiwan crisis is that Taiwan obtains nuclear weapons, and China is never able to threaten them with invasion again.
    Taiwan trying to develop nuclear weapons would be the fastest way to get themselves invaded. China would put a stop to it before it they could even say “nuclear deterrent”.