Okay. And for those of us that haven’t served what does it mean? Fucking gate keepers, man.

War is coming tomorrow.

Edit: again, I would like to add that this is wild speculation.

i will honestly be surprised if it happens this far out from the midterms. i was thinking shit hits the fan maybe a month or two at most before voting day, so fascists can pep rally their braindead supporters into a “we are victorious, therefore the best party” bullshit narrative

i could be wrong. it doesn’t matter. trump was always going to invade iran, regardless of how fucking dumb that always was

Idk, it will spike gas prices presumably, one thinks Iran would shut down the straits of hormuz this time, I can’t believe they didn’t last time though so what do I know. But it will supercharge inflation, and gas prices, 25% of oil moves through there.

Plus once a ship gets blown up, insurance pulls their coverage, and those tankers are worth like a hundred million or more, they won’t risk them in a war zone without insurance.

One would think between mines, and missiles they could have dug in and pull out and shoot off then disappear, that they could shut down the straits, and that maybe last time they were holding back to wait it out and not escalating. Which was a mistake as it guarenteed Israel would want to get some more cost free hits in.

But close to the election the hyper inflation could hurt, now they’ve plenty of time to calm it down, assuming they can keep Israel on a leash enough to keep the gulf ships going through after.

You think Iran could control the Strait of Hormuz against two US carrier strike groups?

I think they could with mines, and missiles, and drones, be able to hit oil tankers well enough to shut down the straits of hormuz.

You don’t think so? I thought they were going to do it last time and they didn’t, so maybe I was mistaken.

There are certain things people can reasonably criticize the US military at being bad at, but I don’t think anyone can credibly claim it isn’t excellent at achieving air superiority. I mean, maybe it could turn out that the Navy is “fighting the last war” and unprepared for drones, but I don’t think that’s likely. Especially not against Iran (China I might give more credit to, what with their hypersonic missiles and all).

I am not saying Iran would beat the US navy, just that it should be able to threaten cargo ships enough to shut down the strait of hormuz and thereabouts. Between mines, floating things that explode when something hits them, sometimes set to intermediate depths. That could be dropped by drones or missiles. To missiles and drones themselves, they should be able to shut down the trade, once there is a credible threat insurance should pull their coverage even if the navy is escorting them.

That is their only real card to play here. Well besides for taking out Saudi oil facilities, which is not a bad idea at all. No matter what the saudis say now that Iran showed they can hit them, the Saudis were the biggest proponents of war with Iran back in the president’s first term. They deserve it, and they are more vulnerable, as the US doesn’t protect them so much.

Besides for that, yeah maybe big maybe they could take out a ship, if they got lucky and overwhelmed their defenses?