Aaron Sojourner
Happy Dec #JobsDay! At 8:30 am ET, @[email protected] delivers one of the most-important signals abt how economy is changing Forecasts’ center: +55K jobs Unemployment rate (UR) steady at 4.4% Report will reflect normal, annual revision processes but fodder for disinfo: bsky.app/profile/aaro...

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:mzmtoehujifw6wpzlz3hdpni/post/3me2g57yp322a
Feb 11 at 1:21pmWeb
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
I’m a labor economist at independent, nonpartisan @[email protected] I learned abt #JobsReport as senior economist for labor @ White House Council of Economic Advisers in Obama & Trump1 admins. CEA gets advance view of monthly #JobsReport. I’d analyze & brief WH leaders & Labor Sec.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
As context, labor markets have been strong: low unemployment rate, high rate of worker job security with low rate of bosses firing staff (figure), few working part time due to lack of full time offer, wages growing, high participation and employment rates for 25-54 year olds…
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Also labor market has weakened over the last year. Hires rate like 2011 is particularly worrisome, falling since Fed's hikes (figure). Jobs have been stable for employed but tough for small share unemployed & wage growth has decelerated. Today will revise 2024-'25 job growth ⬇️.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Strong topline: +130K jobs last month unemployment rate edges down 0.1 percentage point (pp) to 4.3%. Unemployment rate was 4.0% a year ago.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
The big picture trend on U.S. jobs.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
How does recent growth compare to recent years? Economy added 0.36 million jobs over 12 months to Jan 2026. Deceleration to slowest outside pandemic in many years.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Job growth higher this month than recently, maybe accelerating but any small group of months is noisy: + 30K/mo over most-recent 12 months + 14K/mo over most-recent 6 months + 73K/mo over most-recent 3 months + 130K this past month
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Contrary to popular impression, fiscal policy – especially huge new federal deficit spending from OBBB -- is creating a huge, temporary boost to economic growth, +3.0 pp in annualized terms in 2026Q1, per @[email protected] www.brookings.edu/interactives...
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 pp to 4.3%. Down from 4.5% in Nov but up from 4.0% a year ago.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
The number of Americans stuck in unemployment for 6+ months represents deep pain. The recent rise due to low hire rates means lots of struggle. It ticked down to 1.84 million from 1.95 million, which is welcome but noisy signal. Hope that continues.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Both the labor force participation rate (LFPR), at 62.5%, and the employment-population ratio (EPOP: figure), at 59.8%, changed little in January. These measures have shown little change over the year.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Prime age (25-54 years old) EPOP measures core labor market strength, omits people on fringes of work, back to record-high of 80.9% in July-Sept 2024. It was never higher than this during 2002-2022 (80.6% high). Constrains ability to add jobs without immigration = working age folks already working.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
That’s the extensive quantity (Q) margin. Intensive Q margin = average hours. Average workweek hours for private-sector bounced back up to 34.3 hrs. Normal, sign of not weakening.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
If employer demand for labor rises or fewer workers enter to supply, price (wage) rise. Private-sector wage growth fast & up a bit. Annualized rates up over-the-month (red 4.0%), over-3-months (blue 4.1%), & over-year (grey 3.8%). Bizs & retirees want to push 🔽. Working families, 🔼.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Looking at change rates in wages versus consumer prices 3-month annualized, in the most recent data... Wages (red) up at a 4.1% rate & prices up at only a 2.1% rate (blue). So real hourly wages increasing at abt 2.0% annualized rate. If continues, average hour'd buy 2.0% more than year before.
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
In sum, 1. Labor market remarkably strong and stable to now 2. Lots of evidence of stabilization or strengthening, little for weakening, in this month's report. Any single month's report is noisy, so firm conclusions should await future reports. 3. Reflects fiscal stimulus from big deficit $
Show threadAaron SojournerFeb 11
Last thing @[email protected] does amazing work to create timely, accurate info about America's working families, a huge public good They are there for us & we must show up for them If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, join Friends of BLS www.friendsofbls.org/join