Canada should be wary of embracing ‘total national defence’ to ward off an American invasion

https://lemmy.ca/post/59886105

Canada should be wary of embracing ‘total national defence’ to ward off an American invasion - Lemmy.ca

Author: James Horncastle | Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University Intro: > As the Donald Trump administration in the United States continues to threaten Canadian sovereignty — including a recent suggestion that Alberta could secede from Canada and join the U.S. — Canadians, like many others in the world, finds themselves in a period of extreme uncertainty. > > Trump’s continued violations of the rules-based international order means Canada can no longer rely on its partners to the same extent as it has in the past. > > The world must, as Prime Minister Mark Carney recently noted, accept the current climate as it is, rather than looking to the past. > > To do so, Canada must develop a defence policy that can meet the country’s needs. The Canadian government’s recent budget envisions a significant increase in defence spending over the next several years. The problem Canada faces, however, is one that all middle powers face: an inability to compete with great powers in a conventional war. > > The Canadian government must therefore pursue non-conventional means to overcome conventional weakness. Simultaneously, the country must be cognizant of the implications of alternative defence policies. The former Yugoslavia provides a harrowing example. An excerpt: > The biggest vulnerability is the enemy eliminating their command-and-control functions early in the conflict. The U.S., as seen in Iraq in 1991, excels at these types of operations. Russia, while not as effective, attempted to do the same against Ukraine in the early phases of its full-fledged invasion. > > For a smaller country to survive such an attack, it needs to ensure that resistance can continue regardless if centralized command is compromised. > > Under the theory of total national defence, countries decentralize command and control functions to prevent them being eliminated. > > The extent to which countries do so varies. Individual units may operate at the local level without centralized guidance to maintain the struggle against an opponent. In short, even if an opponent succeeds in eliminating the central command of a state, its army and people can continue the struggle.

The whole presumption that we’ve got years before Trump takes Alberta & annexes Canada, using Greenland to snuff our EU-lifeline, is an absurd joke.

We’ve got weeks or months, at most.

Trump’s going to do to Canada what Russia’s been doing to Ukraina, but 10x.

That tippingpoint’s coming, quick.

No sooner than mid-Feb, but .. ANY time after then.

10x the force AND 10x the speed, too.

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Hard disagree, respectfully. Lightning invasion? Sure, maybe. But holding the territory? Forget it. Also, such a military operation wouldn’t be solely up to Trump or his inner circle. Not only would it require buy-in across the services, but also from the general public. I could very well see such an invasion triggering civil war and rupture in the US (you think Minnesota wouldn’t switch sides in such a situation?).

Also, let’s not forget NATO Article 5 (which is where the Ukraine analogy apart). We Canadians are under a nuclear umbrella already, and France is likely to offer even more direct support, if not the UK (WTF, guys?). You want MAD? That’s how you get MAD.

I appreciate your thoughtful and informative post, but as someone potentially in the bullseye of such an eventuality, I’m not losing sleep. Yet.