Government expected to announce it's scrapping EV mandate in favour of new fuel efficiency system: source

https://startrek.website/post/35146671

Government expected to announce it's scrapping EV mandate in favour of new fuel efficiency system: source - Star Trek Website

Lemmy

I actually don’t hate this. In fact, I think it’s probably a much better plan than what we had before.

So, first off, they’re bringing back the EV rebates. That is fucking excellent news. Even better news is that they’re announcing investments in more charging infrastructure across Canada. If you want to see Canadian cars go electric, that’s what will get you there. Not some meaningless mandate saying that no one is allowed to buy gas cars, while refusing to actually make it possible for people to drive electric cars across one of the largest and most sparsely populated countries on Earth.

Those two items alone are big, BIG green transition wins. So before everyone starts in with the moaning about Carney supposedly backsliding again on green goals (and yes, to be clear, he has done some really big backsliding in that area; absolutely letting his government off the hook here) let’s actually look at the details and recognise what we’re getting here.

As for the move away from the EV mandate to “fuel efficiency”, we simply don’t have enough details to really judge what we’re getting here. But I think, no matter what, it has to be recognized that a true 100% transition away from internal combustion was never, ever going to be possible in Canada. The idea that a country with our specific geography and demographic distribution was going to go 100% electric was a ridiculous pipe dream cooked up by idiot policy vendors who just wanted to pretend they were making meaningful steps towards green transition (while leaving the actual polluters entirely alone). What the fuck is a guy living up in Nunavut supposed to do with an electric vehicle? With an ICE you can throw some Jerry cans in the back to refuel on the long stretches between gas stations. With an EV you’re going to, what, carry some solar panels for the four hours of partial sunlight you get in winter?

I think we need to recognize that the EV mandate was the kind of policy cooked up by politicians in Ottawa to appease voters living in Toronto, with not a single thought given to, for example, native communities living up north.

EV’s are, by their nature, already far more practical than combustion vehicles for 90% of the population of Canada, as long as we can provide the infrastructure to make them practical. Which comes back to my point above about the promised investments in charging. That’s the thing that will do more to get consumers transitioned over to EVs than anything else. For the commercial side of things, we know from the available research already that carbon pricing and similar pollution tax methods are by far one of the most effective ways of reducing carbon output, so in theory a fuel efficiency focused model should produce the results we want without needing to be as inflexible as a flat mandate.

In short, there’s absolutely no reason why this approach can’t get us the outcome we’re looking for in terms of a green transition, and it may well get that outcome in a way that better respects the needs of smaller communities (many of them indigenous) across the parts of Canada that cannot be easily served by EV charging infrastructure. The devil is always in the details, and we’ll need to push for that “fuel efficiency” model to have real teeth, but overall there’s no reason to start wailing and gnashing your teeth yet. There’s a real opportunity for this to be a big win for our green goals.

As for the move away from the EV mandate to “fuel efficiency”, we simply don’t have enough details to form a complete opinion yet.

Part of this could be related to the South Korea MOU. Hyundai could be looking to build hydrogen fuel cars here.

Fucking Hydrogen cars. Dead end fucking tech with a fuel that’s extremely difficult to keep in place. For whatever reason the big asian car manufacturers like Honda and Toyota seem to refuse to admit will never take off, after more than 2 decades trying. They insist on trying to continue that while not even attempting to produce EVs that people want even though they were first out the door with hybrids people wanted.

I’m fascinated by their insistence on a technology that is clearly doomed.

Hydrogen isn’t going to happen. So stop holding your breath.

Beyond all of the other problems with hydrogen (production, transportation, storage, dispensing, etc.) the economic truth is that hydrogen vehicles are, at best, 60% efficient. And hydrogen production either relies on fossil fuel production (for “grey” hydrogen), or electrolysis (“green” hydrogen). Electrolysis itself is only about 66% efficient.

This efficiency matters in this comparison because when you put 100 units of energy to get 66 units of energy out, and then put that into a vehicle that can only transform that into around 40 units of motive power, you will always do better putting that energy into an EV which is 95% efficient (you put in 100 units of energy and get 95 units out). In terms of cars, you can charge more than twice as many cars with this input energy as you’d be able to with hydrogen. There is no world where that makes any sort of economic sense for anyone.

With hydrogen vehicles, you get a vehicle that needs a lot more energy to go less distance. It’s the worst of all worlds. And that’s just discussing the efficiency values — and not all the losses that occur during all the transfer stages. Hydrogen needs to be kept cryogenically cold (which also requires more energy to maintain) — in effect, there is no possible work in which hydrogen replaces a modern EV.

Hydrogen isn’t going to happen. So stop holding your breath.

I don’t believe in or care about hydrogen vehicles, just stating that not having an EV mandate is likely related to the SK MOU because Hyundai is specifically interested in hydrogen. I would not be surprised if this is also the precursor to a Japanese vehicle MOU since they also have an interest in hydrogen.

The problem with this analysis is that the “EV mandate” was never an “EV mandate”. It didn’t stipulate that only EVs could be sold after 2035 — it always also permitted other forms of Zero-Emissions Vehicles (and PHEVs with a minimum battery-only distance (80km IIRC?)) — including Hydrogen vehicles.

And Hyundai’s interest in hydrogen is just hedging its bets. They have one hydrogen model (the Nexxo), but multiple EV models. And if the number sold in Canada isn’t zero, it’s likely pretty close. They can be as interested as they want to be, but global sales are abysmal, hydrogen availability is low, the hydrogen is expensive, the hydrogen isn’t always green, and storage and transportation are significant challenges.

It doesn’t matter who is “interested” in hydrogen — it’s still not happening. But it was always allowed by the “EV mandate”, so it wouldn’t need to be cancelled for any MOUs.