Lauren WeinsteinFeb 1
BREAKING: In special election, Democrat wins Texas state senate seat by 14+ points, in district Trump won by 17 points in 2024 and was Republican for decades
Show threadJoe ❌👑Feb 1
@lauren This is a sign that the recent gerrymander may backfire. To pick up more seats they made their margins slimmer.
Show threadDariusFeb 1
@not2b @lauren "Margins slimmer" — Sure, but that doesn't explain a 31 point swing.
Show threadJoe ❌👑
@dariusdunlap @lauren I think you misunderstood me. Texas redrew their districts to get a GOP majority in more districts, *provided* that voters vote the same way that they voted in the past. If suddenly we see a 10 point swing in the D direction, the GOP could wind up with fewer seats than they would have had with the old district lines.
Feb 2 at 1:50amWeb
Show threadDariusFeb 2
@not2b @lauren Yes, and i think you are right the gerrymandering will backfire on the republicans. But this 31 point swing is something beyond the gerrymander failure.
Show threadJoe ❌👑Feb 2
@dariusdunlap @lauren Agreed, but it seems almost too good. I wonder if there was something particular going on in that district to cause such a blowout. It certainly doesn't seem that MAGA has just gone away.
Show threadDariusFeb 2
@not2b @lauren The support is faltering, and the sideliners are waking up, i hope.
Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 2
@dariusdunlap @not2b The GOP knows what's coming. My main concerns are (1) Trump trying to tamper with the elections and (2) The Democrats reverting to their circular firing squad pattern if they win big.
Show threadLauren WeinsteinFeb 2
@not2b @dariusdunlap Yes, the operating theory of the enterprise was that Hispanic voters in particular who had swung toward Trump would continue this pattern. However, this has already largely reversed, kicking the supports out from under the redistricting project.