In a country that really needs new power generation to come on line, Trump’s policies are the exact opposite of what the federal government should be doing. A little bit of context:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Federal-Judge-Clears-Orsted-to-Resume-Work-on-Revolution-Wind.html
Federal Judge Clears Orsted to Resume Work on Revolution Wind
A federal judge in Washington has ruled that rsted may resume construction on its nearly completed Revolution Wind offshore project, dealing a blow to the U.S. administration's national-security-based suspension of offshore wind developments.
1. Before coming to Congress, I ran various companies that built 80+ separate power plants. At one point when we were raising a new round of financing I was asked how long it took from project identification to financial close.
2. I did the math and then joked (but honestly) that the fastest I could remember took a year, the slowest was 5 years “but I’ve got a bunch of projects in the pipeline that, when they close, will break that 5 year record”
3. That’s the reality of project development. You’ve got to get offtakers and engineers and financiers and regulators all on board with the project scope, contracts, etc. It’s a fun gig, but it takes a lot of time. And that’s just to get to financial close!
4. Because then you still have to do the final engineering, procure the final permits, procure equipment, mobilize construction crews, build and commission. That’s another 1 - 2 years.
5. So now put yourself in the shoes of everyone who might build a power plant in the US today. They have that same calendar. Today, there is an insane man setting arbitrary rules about building assets in the US. But he’ll be out of power before your project is fully operational.
6. Meanwhile, your competitors and investors keep seeing projects like the Revolution Wind go on again/off again. Their capital is tied up & they don’t know when they’ll start generating revenue to pay it down. What would you do?
7. The logical answer, for a lot of players has to be “let’s not invest in the US for a while.” Find other markets. Hope stability returns to US regulation, but don’t make big capital bets on that future.
8. Spread that across the whole economy and you understand why GDP is slowing down and why Trump has never built a business with lasting value. Big investments require stability that he is mentally incapable of providing.
9. I’ve said it before, but if Trump was expressly trying to make our economic adversaries stronger and was committed to carrying out their foreign policy to weaken the United States, he would do exactly what he’s doing now.
Sean Casten