commanderValve amended the Steam survey for December 2025 - Linux actually hit another all-time high
I like that the line appears to take an exponential growth curve. Hopefully it will keep going. Microslop sure is helping right now.
Die4EverI don’t think it can keep going at an exponential pace, but I think we can pass 5% in Q2 maybe Q3, especially with Steam Machine
It must level off at some point, if anything for purely mathematical reasons. But the higher it gets before that happens the better.
The big players are driving this trend. Nvidia, Microsoft, Intel, etc are making the old status quo too expensive and obnoxious.
Adoption typically takes an s-shaped or sigmoid curve. A slow start, rapid growth, and then stagnation.
I’m curious whether gamers are going to pull Linux into the mainstream. Discord is a good example. For many years only gamers knew what it was, now most of the users on aren’t using it for gaming, and it has fundamentally changed the platform.
Luckily Linux is an open source system with tons of variety and tailor made environments for specific use cases whereas Discord is a for profit company that shoves unwanted features like Nitro down everyone’s throats for their endless revenue chasing. So if it takes off because of gamers, we’ll see lots of needed features and bugfixes.
To infinity and beyond!
Midnight Wolf🚀 800% here we goooo
Steam Machine would have helped, but now I’m pessimistic the price and availability will be decent because of the damn AI mania.
In a constrained environment it will function more like a sigmoid curve. This looks like evidence that we’re approaching the linear slope in the middle.
thethunderwolfThat doesn’t actually make much sense for Linux adoption stats though
As linux gets bigger, more people will hear about it and consider it, there will be more pressure for Linux support, generally more focus on Linux
It seems like it will indeed be roughly exponential
You just described Sigmoid curves, roughly speaking. The only issue is your incorrect use of “exponential”.
The idea is that it’s not exponential for two main reasons:
Exponential growth is used colloquially for any situation where there’s an upward curve to the trend; in calculus terms, the second derivative is positive. But there are a lot of functions with that property, and exponential functions are only 1 type. Sure, it’s a common one, but so is parabolic, cubic, and other polynomial functions; a variety of trigonometric functions (over certain domains, like sine from -1 to 0); rational functions (again, over certain domains), etc.
Sigmoid curves (colloquially known as S-curves) are very common in any situation where there’s both a contagion factor (like popularity, word of mouth, network effects, etc.) and a limit on growth or maximum carrying capacity. The later is always the case when your function maps to percentages of a population since it caps at 100%.
Is there a predictable difference between an exponential growth curve and a sigmoid curve before the linear growth section? Like I suppose you’d be able to measure the dropoff in acceleration as velocity reaches its peak, but given that this is also a random sample, sample noise would make that impossible to determine in real time.
I mean, it’s a % of people who use x chart, so the only way it won’t be sigmoid eventually is if it drops off as something else replaces it, but I don’t think looking at the chart will help predict where the chart is going any more than how well that works with stock prices.
No, it’s just a really commonly encountered curve for growth within a constrained environment. Fitting the curve could only predict where it is going with a probabilistic model anyways - it can’t predict the future.
_haha_oh_wow_Seems kinda crazy to me that Windows is still so dominant after all the shitty stuff MS has done.
As someone who semi-recently made the jump (june) to linux, you need a lot of time to do it, even for something that would seem trivial to an experienced user like going to mint. Most people don’t have the time to do something like that. New systems built by curious nerds will probably be where linux gets most of its new users. (so it’s a shame no one can afford to build one)
I’ve installed Windows on thousands of machines and IMO, major Linux distros are usually easier to set up for home use but I say that having used both for a good amount of time, so my opinion is definitely biased compared to someone who doesn’t really use computers.
I would argue though, where Linux really shines is old systems, much like the many that MS chose to drop support for in Windows 11. There’s a pretty decent chance that the bullshit going on with RAM and drives might actually further drive Linux adoption as people try to get more out of their existing machines or old used\refurbished machines that they can actually afford (which Linux runs great on, unlike Windows).
Time will tell though…
It doesn’t really matter which is easier to install because only a very small percentage of people are comfortable with installing an OS of any kind. The vast majority of people just keep whatever OS was pre-installed. 99% of the time that’s Windows or MacOS.
Hopefully 2026 brings some more mainstream options to buy computers with Linux pre-installed. I think that’s unlikely though, other than Steam OS for some handhelds and Valve’s new hardware.
It would be great if Lenovo or Dell or others prominently featured Linux options to try to capitalize on all the Microsoft hate. I know they already sell some Ubuntu options but they aren’t featured or advertised. I suspect they are afraid of pissing off Microsoft.
Dell definitely has an option for Ubuntu as a default install, but it’s definitely not the norm. Not sure about Lenovo, but I can tell you Linux runs great on Thinkpads (my daily driver is a T14 with Cinnamon Mint).
KesharaLenovo (as far as I’m aware) still has the Ubuntu deal going where you can order a new ThinkPad with Ubuntu pre installed
Only with certain models, sadly. Mine was not available with anything but W10 Pro, 3y ago. Zero support for Linux.
Also linux support for cellular models is atrocious, so I had to go with (k)ubuntu, even though I didn’t want to. Even then, it was more difficult than it should have been (didn’t work out of the box). Everything else worked fine on all distros and flavors I checked, but none else got the modem working (eventually).
But also, after that TP and then buying and returning two more (known cooling issues that Lenovo denies, and a custom build that thru didn’t activate or provide a key for W10 Pro!), they will have to give me a free, top-tier machine to potentially get me as a customer again. Cs was nice but everything else is a dumpster fire.
The TP is on its second battery too - the first was replaced after 6 weeks. I never left the house, and yet it went from 3h to 20m capacity in that amount of time. The replacement did the same thing…
Makes sense, I never bought from Lenovo directly (mine’s a refurb), but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn Lenovo started doing it before Dell.
Without researching it, I’m not sure who did it first, but I have a feeling it was Lenovo.
I’ve also never ordered from them directly either, imo a brand new T series ThinkPad is a horrible investment, I just let someone else lose the thousands and pick up a year old barely used on the second hand market for (I’m in Australia) 1.5k - 2.5k less than retail typically.
PSA: Michael Dell is a super shitty GOP megadoner. Don’t buy his shit.
I don’t personally, but they are one of the suppliers where I work.
I installed Mint on my 72 year old fathers new Thinkpad. He loves it and has had relatively few complaints.
🇰 🌀 🇱 🇦 🇳 🇦 🇰 🇮 Up until more recently, all the shitty shit they did only affected people with more computer knowledge than how to open the browser and use google.
I think it affected more people than that, but the level of annoyance is way higher than ever with the average user these days for sure.
AnUnusualRelicMost users don’t know how to enter a url any other way than to search for the site name and click on the most likely result.
I don’t see those people installing Linux (or anything else, for that matter) any time soon.
I think most users, given enough motivation, could definitely figure out how to install a distro from scratch especially for something like Ubuntu or Mint.
You’re much more optimistic than I am. Maybe I’ve spent too much time with users who are usually scared of clicking on an unknown button, because after all, who knows what could happen if they click on “ok”?
I’ve spent shitloads of time with users (did stints at repair shops, MSP, desktop support, and analyst stuff), but even the most ignorant, careless user could probably get through installing Linux if they really wanted to.
But that kind of user typically won’t want to because it’s much too scary.
Of course it’s trivial to install Linux, you just have to click “next” five times or so.
It becomes a matter of which is scarier: Microsoft or having to try a new thing? The shittier windows gets, the more people will be pushed to jump ship, possibly to Linux.
Realistically what’ll happen is these users will start hunting for alternatives. If Linux gains enough enthusiast marketshare, more small local IT companies will feel comfortable just handing folks an old PC loaded with Linux, more computer shops will directly support Linux and this will chip away at the norm. Eventually if such a trend continues for long enough folks will start asking for it “yeah my last computer had oombootoo on it instead of Microsoft. Do they still make that? Can you get me one of them oombootoo computers?”
Yeah the unthinkable happened. One of my friends switched to Linux and I feel confident this is only the beginning. Microslop finally pushed one of my semi-normie friends to switch. 🎉
GormadtI’ve had multiple of my normie friends ask me about linux in the last few months and I even got 2 to switch over. Which blew my mind I got them to.
I think my favorite comment I’ve heard from them since switching is how much it just gets out of their way. It’s there and does the thing and is only there as much as it needs to be.
Before doing the switch, part of my mind thought that it was accepting a new pain that might equal or exceed the familiar pain in the short run but would be worth it in the long run to get away from the frustration of windows.
The reality that I experienced is that it was less painful than wrangling windows to behave more like how I want it to.
What’s the % share 9ng English installations? Can’t figure out how to view that
83.11% of Linux is English …steampowered.com/…/Steam-Hardware-Software-Surve…
that’s 7.59% of total
at the bottom here: www.gamingonlinux.com/steam-tracker/
Thanks, I thought it was on Valve’s website. They’re just serving statistics based on tge raw data probably. Got it
This makes a lot of sense because Steam doesn’t care about the OS lacales on Linux. It defaults to English and you can switch to other language, but you have to go to settings. I switch the language in my client after installation, but many people won’t care enough or won’t even know.
Debian GNU/Linux 13 (trixie) 64 bit 1.72% +0.14%
🫡 Whoever caused this stat - I salute them!
These are people who do not tolerate any nonsense from their computer, but also aren’t going to let anything get in the way of playing their games.
I use CachyOS on my main rig but i have a home server with debian i also use to game on every now and again, it was a great experience (besides nvidia drivers ngl) i dont understand why people try to scare others away from gaming with it
Because using the latest drivers (and thus kernels) is important to play recent games, to get performance and bug fixes.
Debian usually ships an older LTS kernel (6.12 right now, while the latest stable Linux kernel is 6.18), so you might hit more bugs and performance issues in Debian than in a less conservative distro.
Magnum, P.I.This is me.
Haha, are you guys doing anything fancy? I am not - everything works out of the box.
Fer Trixie, I did have to do something, but I don’t remember what it was. maybe, newer firmware for wireless or something.
I bought a used convertable notebook you can open until it touches the back turning it into a “tablet”. I really thought it will be a painful path to compatibility - but everything actually worked out of the box too, on-screen keyboard, rotation, disabling keyboard - everything… I was baffled how far we’ve come over the last 30 years.
rbos