Piko Starsider Dec 6

Plenty of people is blaming "AI" in the abstract for the recent RAM price spikes, but I haven't seen anybody around here point to the actual and direct culprit of it all: Sam Altman secretly bought 40% of silicon wafers (not even produced RAM, just the silicon wafers) from two of the biggest RAM manufacturers, at the same time. Not even with specific plans for what kind of RAM do with them. This is just to mess up with competitors.

Seriously, you can't hate OpenAI enough.

https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram-deal

Sam Altman’s Dirty DRAM Deal

Or: How the AI Bubble, Panic, and Unpreparedness Stole ChristmasWritten by Tom of Moore’s Law Is DeadSpecial Assistance by KarbinCry & kari-no-sugataBased on this Video: https://youtu.be/BORRBce5TGwIntroduction — The Day the RAM Market SnappedAt the beginning of November, I ordered a 32GB DDR5 kit for pairing with a Minisforum BD790i X3D motherboard, and three weeks later those very same sticks of DDR5 are now listed for a staggering $330– a 156% increase in price from less than a month ago! At

Moore's Law Is Dead
Show threadGabriele Svelto
@starsider I've seen this repeated many times already but the truth is that OpenAI did not sign deals - as in binding contracts - but letters of intents to buy RAM. Not the same thing. And it should be obvious why: from the little we know about their financials OpenAI simply does not have the money to buy that much RAM. This whole madness is not based on actual demand, but on the appearance of it. Everything about AI is about appearances, not substance.
Dec 6 at 8:31pmWeb
Show threadPiko Starsider Dec 6
@gabrielesvelto They're not buying RAM, they're buying wafers. They made this deal with two companies the same day, and each of them didn't know about the deal with the other one. Of course the price spike is because of all the panic buying and stockpiling and not directly of this purchase, but buying the wafers affect RAM production long term.
Show threadGabriele SveltoDec 6

@starsider no, they're not. They're not buying anything. Don't trust that article, go read primary sources: https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-accelerate-advancements-in-global-ai-infrastructure

> OpenAI, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDS, Samsung C&T and Samsung Heavy Industries today announced a letter of intent (LOI) [...]

Note, OpenAI can lie about this, because they're not a publicly traded company. Samsung is, and if they had signed an actual multi-billion dollars contract they'd have to report it.

Show threadPiko Starsider Dec 6

@gabrielesvelto From your link: "With OpenAI’s memory demand projected to reach up to 900,000 DRAM wafers per month"

So OK, maybe "bought" is an exaggeration, but "is reserving 40% of RAM wafers" is still pretty impactful, esp. considering they did it unbeknownst to the other company.

Show threadGabriele SveltoDec 6
@starsider that statement is written on water until they sign an actual deal where OpenAI puts forwards money to pay for it, and OpenAI is extremely unlikely to have that kind of money. That being said Samsung management can make stupid decisions and reallocate production based on that letter of intent alone. Or they can not do it at all, because the chaos this has caused is already benefitting them, at least in the short term.
Show threadPiko Starsider Dec 6
@gabrielesvelto Samsung has already reallocated production to deny RAM chips to... their own phone division.
Show threadGabriele SveltoDec 6

@starsider that's also somewhat I've seen reported and it's not entirely clear what's happening. The primary source is this article in Korean and I cannot attest its veracity: https://m-sedaily-com.translate.goog/NewsView/2H1K8OF01L?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Samsung denied it, but regardless of what is being said the price increases are real and they will affect their phone division.

[단독] 삼성 반도체, 갤럭시 D램도 분기별 계약

산업 > 기업 뉴스: 삼성전자(005930) 반도체(DS)부문이 스마트폰을 생산하는 모바일경험(MX)사업부의 메모리반도체를 분기별 협상에 따라 공급하기...

서울경제
Show threadGabriele SveltoDec 6
@starsider this is no different than what happened with fossil fuel supplies after Russia invaded Ukraine. There were never actual shortages and demand shrunk, but that didn't prevent financial manipulation from making the prices go up by ten times purely on the presumption of shortages
Show threadRay McCarthyDec 6

@gabrielesvelto @starsider
They never will without borrowing.

OpenAI can't possibly make a profit.

Their product is also no better than a toy.

The Emperor is in the Altogether.