The unknwon unknowns. That Rumsfeldian concept which some (of us) gleed over, because it sounded stupid and obvious.
However, this concept describes precisely the Black Swan occurrences, the unexpected situations that are outside of the realm of our expectation (i.e., not just improbable outliers, but things that weren't even imagined in the distribution space of possible events).
Newton described it as "the vast ocean of truth that lay undiscovered before me", while he was "like a boy playing on the seashore".
And even that doesn't quite describe it, because if you know you don't know, then it is not an "unknown unknown".
Most of scientific bureaucracy is based on chasing known unknowns. And that is quite all right, because we actually do need to refine and calibrate our models, and improve our technology. This is the basis of our technological civilization.
However, paradigmatic upheaval is in the finding of completely new science, models, mental mappings.
And that can't be done, for the most part, to be polite, by commitee, nor by plan.
Max Planck proposed the energy "quantum" conjecture, not as a step in a plan to create new physics. Rather, it was a placeholder, a thought —or pehaps an afterthought— to account for the puzzling black body radiation phenomenon, the "ultraviolet catastrophe"
He had no idea that Einstein would "run with it", and propose the quantization of light —the photon— to explain the photoelectric effect in one of his 1905 "anno mirabilis" papers —and which netted Einsten the Nobel Prize in 1921.
The ball started rolling from there
Although Einstein would later be a quantum theory detractor, it is the fact that he put the ball in motion to explore and discover the depths of quantum physics.
Nowadays, we have these two grand theories, and a "Standard Model". But the incompatabilities at the core means that there the two theories can't be right.
It is a similar situation to the Black Body problem that started the whole XXth Century quantum revolution, in the sense that there is a contradiction, something that is beyond mere calibration of the models.
I deplore the retrenching of scientific spending by the government. But perhaps this can be a good thing. Maybe this circunstance allows an obscure, perhaps heretofore unknown scientist to propose a fantastic heresy. And with this proclamation, provides the impetus to peer into the unfathomable; to shine light onto an unknown unknown. And, in doing so, allows us to break through (a literal breakthrough) to a new understanding.
May serendipity and boldness take hold!
Abel MS