PumpkinDramaOct 28

How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events?

https://reddthat.com/post/53052197

How can I learn to estimate the likelihood of real-world events? - Reddthat

I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?

Show threadcRazi_man

I’ve heard podcasts about super forecasters, but haven’t come across a systemic way to learn about this. But knowing a name used for this might help in your search

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster

Superforecaster - Wikipedia

Oct 29 at 12:06amWeb
Show threadcapital_sniffOct 30
Tetlock. He’s got a few talks on youtube that are very interesting. As someone who called all three recent presidential elections, I almost bought his book so his talks were fairly interesting.