In 2024, the following US states were considered “swing states” upon which the outcome of that year’s presidential election hinged: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Together, those states had a population of about 62 million people in 2024.

The total US population in 2024 was about 340.1 million people.

This means that nearly 278 million people, or about 82% of the population, lived in states that had essentially pre-determined outcomes for the presidential election that year.

If you lived in New York, you knew with near-certainty that your state’s electoral college votes would have gone to Harris, and if you lived in Alabama, you knew with near-certainty that your state’s electoral college votes would have gone to Trump.

And so on and so forth, for 278 million people. 82% of the country knew in advance, with varying but considerable levels of confidence, how their state’s role in the election would play out, regardless of any action they took.

And some people still get mad at people who didn’t vote.

EVERYTHING else about voting aside, this would seem sufficient to explain any low voter turnout in a US presidential election. For the vast majority of people in the country, voting is structurally and institutionally irrelevant. It doesn’t matter at all. The outcome is pre-determined.
@HeavenlyPossum Yeah, but also vote every time, no matter what.