@chris my three rules of thumb:
Study “The Tao of Backups” - at terabyte levels, don’t expect one drive to be infallible.
Do price / # of terabytes math. Or flip the ratio and call it terabytes per $nn. Either way, be aware of the sweet spot. Last time I looked at retail/home drives, $20+ per terabytes at low and high sizes came down to $15 per terabyte around 16T.
Look at Backblaze data. Let them kill bias (e.g., I have avoided seagate, and their data shows a couple seagate 8T drives absolutely _slaying_ on their lifespans and low fail rates. https://www.backblaze.com/blog/backblaze-drive-stats-for-q2-2025/