To test your strategy against an uncertain future, start by naming its core beliefs. Every strategy is built on a few key assumptions. Write them down clearly.
Then, sketch out a few different ways the future might unfold. Think about changes in society, technology, economics, environment, and politics. These scenarios should be plausible but different from each other. (1/4)
Now, test each assumption against each scenario. Ask: would this core belief still hold true? Does it get weaker, or does it break completely?
For the scenarios that break your assumptions, decide what you would do instead. Plan your pivot in advance. Also, identify the early signals that would tell you a certain future is starting to happen. (2/4)
To avoid blind spots, have someone play devil’s advocate to challenge your assumptions. And focus most on the assumptions that would hurt the most if they failed.
This process turns your strategy from a fixed plan into a flexible one. You'll know what to watch for and when to act, which reduces surprises and builds resilience. (3/4)
StrategicForesight