I can't believe I haven't come across this talk by @kentbeck before. It has so much explanatory power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WazqgfsO_kY
3X Explore, Expand, Extract • Kent Beck • YOW! 2018

YouTube
Thinking about this some more, I do wonder if explore-expand-extract tracks as a specific application of Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework.
@jrsinclair To me it looks like the S-curve. And the amount of layoffs says that almost none of the companies actually manage it. Everyone just goes with the flow.