Prof. Sam LawlerJul 3

New SpaceX report on Starlink conjunctions and deorbits (a.k.a. dumping tons of metal/plastic/solar panels/computers into the upper atmosphere) https://www.scribd.com/document/883045105/SpaceX-Gen1-Gen2-Semi-Annual-Report-7-1-25

Scariest part:
472 Starlinks were burned up in the atmosphere in Dec-May. Assuming each satellite is 800kg, and 50% aluminum by mass, that's 1 ton of aluminum PER DAY.

The natural infall rate of aluminum from meteoroids is 0.3 tons per day. Starlink has been ~3x that, for the last 6 months.

SpaceX Gen1-Gen2 Semi-Annual Report (7!1!25) | PDF | Satellite | Space X

SpaceX FCC doc

Scribd
Show threadProf. Sam LawlerJul 3

Kessler Syndrome update:
They report 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers across the whole constellation in Dec-May. That's about one maneuver every 2 minutes.

Every 2 minutes there's a chance for a mistake that would lead to a very bad day in orbit. And as this paper shows (with Dr. Kessler himself as a co-author!), a very bad day at that altitude would lead to a runaway collisional cascade. No more satellites at that altitude! https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf

Show threadLauma Pret 🕸️
@sundogplanets
If Kessler Syndrome happens, what do we lose in everyday sense of things? GPS and better weather prediction? Of course, it is going to be huuuge problem for science and space travel, I don't want to minimize that, but I wonder how it will look for layperson.
Jul 4 at 8:16amWeb
Show threadProf. Sam LawlerJul 4
@laumapret This is also something I need to understand better myself!