Prof. Sam LawlerJul 3

New SpaceX report on Starlink conjunctions and deorbits (a.k.a. dumping tons of metal/plastic/solar panels/computers into the upper atmosphere) https://www.scribd.com/document/883045105/SpaceX-Gen1-Gen2-Semi-Annual-Report-7-1-25

Scariest part:
472 Starlinks were burned up in the atmosphere in Dec-May. Assuming each satellite is 800kg, and 50% aluminum by mass, that's 1 ton of aluminum PER DAY.

The natural infall rate of aluminum from meteoroids is 0.3 tons per day. Starlink has been ~3x that, for the last 6 months.

SpaceX Gen1-Gen2 Semi-Annual Report (7!1!25) | PDF | Satellite | Space X

SpaceX FCC doc

Scribd
Show threadProf. Sam LawlerJul 3

Kessler Syndrome update:
They report 144,000 collision avoidance maneuvers across the whole constellation in Dec-May. That's about one maneuver every 2 minutes.

Every 2 minutes there's a chance for a mistake that would lead to a very bad day in orbit. And as this paper shows (with Dr. Kessler himself as a co-author!), a very bad day at that altitude would lead to a runaway collisional cascade. No more satellites at that altitude! https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305/SDC9-paper305.pdf

Show threadGhostOnTheHalfShellJul 3

@sundogplanets

So here's a question for you. If a cascade occurs, won't it tend to dramatically increase satellite junk, falling to earth along with all the environmental problems that causes?

And what kind of consequence will it bring to the night sky? We're talking about a dramatic increase in the amount of particulates floating around and lower earth orbit, or some such.

Show threadDuncan
@GhostOnTheHalfShell @sundogplanets in the same vein, post Kessler syndrome would the large number of small particles at that height have any measurable effect on the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface?
Jul 4 at 6:20amWeb