Mike HoneyJun 14, 2025

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late May.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is just dominant, but appears stalled at around 30%.

Growth of the XFG.* "Stratus" variant accelerated to 22%, and it is on a trajectory to take over soon.

#COVID19 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
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Show threadMike HoneyJun 14, 2025

Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples, with a roughly similar picture. However both NB.1.8.1.* and XFG.* are a bit higher.

This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
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Show threadMike HoneyJun 14, 2025
Globally, the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant is showing a slowing growth advantage of 4.1% per day (29% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant, with a crossover in mid- May.
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Show threadMike HoneyJun 14, 2025
With the resumption of sequence data sharing from China, the takeover of the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" parallels that in Hong Kong, rising to 100% frequency.
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Show threadMike HoneyJun 14, 2025
Globally, the XFG.* "Stratus" variant is showing a stronger and accelerating growth advantage of 6.6% per day (46% per week) over the LP.8.1.* variant. That predicts a crossover in late May (the data routinely lags).
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Show threadMike Honey
The highest frequencies of XFG.* "Stratus" have been reported from India, reaching 64%. It has also shown sustained growth in the US to 33%, and Spain to 27%.
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Jun 14, 2025 at 10:35amWeb
Show threadMike HoneyJun 14, 2025
Report link:
https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Global.pdf
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