@jjj @drgroftehauge I am of two minds on estimation (plus a personal observation):
1. As an individual dev this is mostly a meaningless exercise
2. As a person who has plumbers and electricians etc in my house occasionally, I have no idea if plan A vs plan B takes takes 2 weeks vs 2 days, and that might be a big part of my decision on which way to go.
Observation: in early agile I was on a team trying many things, and one was estimating, but we didn’t share these estimates outside the team, as numbers they had no meaning, the work took the time it took. But estimating as a group brought out new information (why do you say 1 day and I say 1 month?), and also it made collaboration easier, because everyone had a rough idea about all the stuff we were doing as a group.
@Patricia @jjj @drgroftehauge estimation is like planning. The process is useful (sometimes). The output is not.
The trick is to stop seeing the output of process as the solution. The "thing" is the dynamic process. Because the outside world is not static but dynamic. That is one element of "system thinking" i think miss the point. The map of the system is not useful. Mapping is. Because the thing that make a system work is how it changes over time. The *dynamic* aspects of it.
That is why copying a system doesn't produce comparable results. It misses the fundamental dynamic part. How it changes.
More than "planning", what is helpful is *replanning*.
I am probably too deep
@Di4na @Patricia @jjj @drgroftehauge
I think this is a confusion stemming from using "planning" both for describing scaling from making 20 cupcakes to making 200, which is easy and also from 20 to 20 million a week. Which has some superficial overlap, but is actually a completely different problem. In a new space that's probably mostly unknown.
The first kind makes sense, is static and transferring the same system description is useful.
And the rest is just hard.