An old failed Venus lander will re-enter from earth orbit next month, and it could land anywhere between 52 degrees north and south. Which covers basically all population in the southern hemisphere and a large majority in the north, leaving out the Baltics, Nordics, and Alaska.
It weighs a thousand pounds and is expected to reach the ground intact. Previous debris from the launch landed in New Zealand.
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.html
In addition to the TUDAT and CSpOC forecasts at the link above, the ESA Space Debris Office is also making reentry projections: https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/05/07/reentry-prediction-soviet-era-venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/
Current TUDAT projection is 10 May, 7:34 UTC ± 14.6 hr, ESA says 10 May, 07:12 UTC ± 13.67 hours. Pretty good overlap.
It's still much more than a single orbit, so it can rule out some areas but it's still covering a lot of the surface.
Ben Brockert
Chris Radcliff