Why the USA is still heading for a DEEP recession:

Trump's 90 day tariff stay causes uncertainty—what happens next? So no sane business is going to make investment plans going forward. Or hire people. They may run existing ops at full tilt to stockpile raw materials or pile up exports ahead of the deadline, but all new plans are on hold for 3 months.

That ALONE is a recession. Business confidence has evaporated. The US administration is non-serious about business, so business will give up.