David GerardMar 21, 2025

so what the fuck is the market for humanoid robots

* useless in industry (or you'd see 'em long ago)
* sexbots? sure. i get the press release hype. a realdoll that talks (chatGPT) and moves
* waiting staff etc? basically novelties

BIG USE CASE: tech bubble hope

c'mon gimme actual application here

Show threadCharlie StrossMar 21, 2025

@davidgerard

I have good news/bad news!

There is a CLEAR demand for cheap-enough-to-be-affordable humanoid robots in care/nursing homes or other environments requiring hands-on labour interacting with human bodies or human-centric artefacts.

Bad news: cheap-enough approximates to "can compete with modern slavery wages" and the performance threshold is impossibly high—makes safe full-self-driving car software look like a fizzbuzz problem.

Show threadDavid GerardMar 21, 2025
@cstross yep. they are frantically solving everything except the hard bit that is ~100% of the problem
Show threadMichael Roberts

@davidgerard @cstross Well, but look. If you see venture capital as the actual business they're in - selling dreams to vampires - then actually solving technical problems is an utter waste of resources and is in fact *counter*productive. A real solution can never be as sexy, and therefore as profitable, as a glorious future with a ground floor to get in at.

Thinking businesses should make things that work is as outmoded as thinking governments should foster broad-based prosperity.

Mar 21, 2025 at 1:50pmWeb
Show threadCharlie StrossMar 21, 2025
@vivtek @davidgerard Ever wondered how empires fall and dark ages happen? Because you need wonder no more: we're all getting a master class in it right now, with one finger jammed firmly on the fast-forward button!
Show threadMichael RobertsMar 21, 2025
@cstross @davidgerard I wish I didn't know that and could live out my years in addled complacency.
Show threadDavid GerardMar 21, 2025

@vivtek @cstross lol i am totally stealing that for my eventual writeup

(i can see this being >1000 words and the video taking four hours for post)

Show threadMichael RobertsMar 21, 2025
@davidgerard @cstross My work here is done.
Show threadCharlie StrossMar 21, 2025
@davidgerard @vivtek The venture capital/startup model had a good 50 year run down Sand Hill Road in Palo Alto, modulo a couple of highly regrettable bubbles, but any system humans can invent that yields profit will eventually be gamed by other fraudsters, and I think large language model corruption caused by training using inputs based on garbage output is a great metaphor for what they're doing to themselves. VC is eating its own shit and saying "delicious!" in hope of attracting suckers.
Show threadbrabbeltinnbartMar 22, 2025
@vivtek @davidgerard @cstross I had a dream recently. The press called a man the master of all frauds. He was admired because he brought the business of fraud to a new level: Fraudsters before him thought, they needed something to build up that looked like a valuable thing in order to claim it was the original and to sell it. But he discovered, he just needed to claim „this is a valuable thing“ pointing at an empty land that wasnt even his own, and the funds will buy.