My summary slide at the #APSSummit25 on Monday of evidence for dynamical dark energy, which I’ll share as we wait for the DESI Year 3 results this afternoon.
Paper led by Ryan Keeley @rkeeley: https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.12667
The Preference for Evolving Dark Energy from Cosmological Distance Measurements and Possible Signatures in the Growth Rate of Perturbations
In this study, we use a flexible parametrization of the equation of state of dark energy to explore its possible evolution with datasets from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), Planck cosmic microwave background, and either the 5-year Dark Energy Survey (DES) or the Pantheon+ (PP) supernova (SN) compilation. This parametrization, called transitional dark energy, allows for rapid changes in the equation of state but also changes like that in the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder parametrization. We find a 3.8σ preference for evolving dark energy over ΛCDM with the DES dataset and a weaker 2.4σ preference when using the PP dataset. This corroborates the finding of the DESI Collaboration, who found that their baryon acoustic oscillation data preferred evolving dark energy when fit with the CPL parametrization of the equation of state. Our analysis reveals no significant outliers in the DESI data around the TDE best-fit, while the data is asymmetrically distributed around the ΛCDM best-fit model such that the measured distances are on average smaller. The DESI and SN data both prefer an expansion history that implies a higher dark energy density around z=0.5 than in the Planck-ΛCDM model, with the inferred equation of state being greater than -1 around z=0 and close to or below -1 at z>0.5. We show that when the expansion rate is greater than that in the Planck-ΛCDM model (around z=0.5), the growth rate calculated assuming General Relativity is suppressed relative to the Planck-ΛCDM model, and it rebounds as the expansion rate differences between the models become smaller closer to the present time. The resulting flattening of the $fσ_8(z)$ curve compared to the ΛCDM model could be an independent signature of the temporal evolution of dark energy.
