fossilesqueplace yer bets
LibertyLizardSo what level of calamity are we talking about here? 3% doesn’t sound that low to me.
enkersI recall hearing it was medium-ish nuclear weapon sized, but not wipe out civilisation size. Wherever it’s heading would need to be evacuated.
That was a week ago, though, and I’m sure the size projections will be updated as we get more data.
knightly the SneptaurWe’ll get a better idea of whether it’ll hit or not in 2028 the next time it passes close to earth, which will give us plenty of time to respond before it might hit in 2032.
4 years to develop an effective anti-asteroid response?
Well, yeah. Deflecting an impact that’s scheduled 4 years in the future wouldn’t take much force and we did it once before with the DART mission. We can just do that again in the months between when the asteroid comes back around and when it flies past us.
I think the DART mission picked a target of some convenience. This is no arbitrary target - it picked us. The stakes are a lot higher if failure is not an option. And of course, the world is currently tearing itself apart, so that won’t help when the moment for unity and collaboration approaches.
You’re not wrong, but something like this is well within the capabilities of private companies like ArianeSpace or SpaceX. Also, the stakes are just a city-killer asteroid, failure is entirely an option when there’s plenty of time to evacuate the impact zone.
Except that 2028 would also be our window to do something about it before it disappears back into space. There needs to be a plan now, even if that plan is to wait and see where it’s going to hit.
In short, we already have a plan. DART proved that we can do it, and off-the-shelf rockets like the Falcon 9 have plenty of performance. All that remains is to wait until early 2028 when we get a proper fix on the asteroid, then we’ve got 7 or 8 months to prep and launch a mission before the window of opportunity closes.
