So here's the new Gallup poll saying 9.3% of US adults now identify as LGBTQ+, with younger generations far more likely to. It makes intuitive sense that identification goes up when social acceptance goes up. The same thing happened with left-handedness in the early/mid 1900s.

But younger generations are also the least likely to respond to phone calls for random sample polls. Last year before the election, I became convinced that traditional representative polling is all but dead, because no one answers unknown calls anymore. The alternatives - opt-in or online polls - aren't representative, hence not reliable. Maybe a solution will be found someday but we ain't there yet.

So the rational response to the LGBTQ+ poll, and any recent poll, has to include skepticism. Not because we don't want the 🌈 trends to be true, but because selection biases and other problems are extremely hard to avoid. My data-less gut says the upward trend is true but the specific numbers should have come with very big ±.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/656708/lgbtq-identification-rises.aspx

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