Jonny AxelssonSo it has finally come to this, that the US is now a co-belligerent with Russia in their war against Europe.
#Trump des Willens #Molotov–Ribbentrop #Ukraine
It's shocking in an absolute sense, not shocking in another. Trump was a well-known unknown. #Ukraine #backstab
We knew what we were in for. I wrote this June last year (2014) on "Europe should prepare for possible Trump 2.0":
The obvious challenge will be Ukraine, but that has already been factored in, in a manner of speaking.
The next challenge will be #NATO. As an alliance it depends on military and nuclear deterrent to avoid costly fights.
But it does not end there. Trump, like Putin, believes that the #EU shouldn't exist. Europe as a collection of small and medium-sized countries is much easier for the US as well as Russia to control.
This is a fringe view in the US, but a very real one. Trump is not the only one holding it.
Also he would like to start a trade war with everyone else, including #Europe (and now the EU and the UK are split).
In other words, mere US absence in Europe/NATO/Ukraine is not the Trump worst case. Whether directly by intention or not, a Trump administration may well try to divide and conquer.
A Ukraine peace deal you can't refuse could be an excellent way to split Europe.
Orban's Hungary would be an obvious defector to Team Trump&Putin, but quite possibly Meloni's Italy, and in time Le Pen's France (but were they to wait until 2027 European war production will be up to scratch anyway).
Now, #Trump himself is weak and easily influenced. He is also aging very badly, but his vindictiveness is burning as strong as ever. That is good news for Europe.
He may do great harm to Europe, but we're not on his shit list (some politicians might, but through the marvel of democracy most of those 2016 politicians are gone now in 2024; Zelenskyy being the notable exception).
Expect him to spend most of his energy pursuing his domestic enemies.
When the king is weak, his advisors get stronger (this applies to Biden too). That is the primary cause of concern.
Who will they be, how often will they change, and how much influence will they exert? Some are known, some have shown their cards.
Some will be oil-style Republican hawks, they should be overall tolerable (if bad for the climate). But they don't seem to be in ascendancy. This, rather than Trump himself, should be the biggest concern for US allies.
Worse, we need to be prepared to harm US interests in Europe and abroad. Like with NATO just as a deterrence, hopefully never to be used.
Having to set up #de-risking and #deterrence for what is supposed to be our closest ally is wasteful and frankly ridiculous, but it could be too costly not to.