Is there any way our of the US political spiral?

https://lemmy.world/post/24632974

Is there any way our of the US political spiral? - Lemmy.World

I’m not in the US, but it seems to me that the Republicans keep breaking norms and procedures, including politicising impeachment and ignoring illegal, immoral and plain bad conduct. They also seem to be fine with not applying the same standard across the isle. On the other hand, either Democrats follow new precedent, with even more devolving, or they keep the old decorum and get their asses kicked by Republican foul play. What ways out of this spiral are there?

I see basically three ways out:

  • Democrats/someones sane win overwhelming majority for long enough to harden procedures, cement effective enforcement, and subversion proof the whole system, while not succumbing to their own corruption. Seems incredibly unlikely.

  • Autocracy and/or persecution of political rivals, where dissenters “fall out windows” a lot or the legislative body is replaced, until stability reforms and new norms can be reintroduced. Seems most likely currently, and has several contemporary examples.

  • Revolt, public and/or military, throwing out all the politicians and imposing exile or lynching of the offending politicians. Seems improbable, and especially to unite enough to throw out all the bad behaviour. Also will lead to a junta, civil strife and/or provisional government which come with their own slew of issues and corruption.

  • The Republicans grow a sense of decorum to protect the less privileged party. I can’t imagine this happening without basically a GOP-internal pogrom under a strongman, but Republican conservatism pulls a strongman in the opposite direction. Unless perhaps they’re some kind of upstanding teocrat perhaps?

  • This is all wild and slightly saddening speculation, please feel free to suggest other paths!

    I still think the US states splitting up like the USSR did is entirely on the table.

    California is not going to continue being the republican punching bag and funding red states forever.

    A split like this would likely allow some people to move, and ease the tensions measurably.

    The states would still trade/function with each other, I don’t expect them to go to war or anything.

    States leaving isn’t realistic. They are way more integrated than the EU has ever dreamed of being. Brexit was messy with a mostly independent UK, something like California leaving would take decades of negotiations to replace existing interstate compacts with treaties.
    California is interesting because they control much of what the rest of the country wants. They are the gateway for US imports (Ports of LA/LB), provide a significant amount of agriculture, and have one of the highest operating economies in the world.
    I’d add NY to that shortlist.
    That’s only true because they are part of the US, which guarantees a lot of free trade/resources from other states. There’s also other things like California being dependent on electricity from other states, the price isn’t going to stay the same.
    California imports 30% of it’s power from out-of-state, and with renewables in the Mojave region ramping up, that figure is expected to decrease in the coming decades. While that makes us the largest power importer in the country, we are the 4th largest producer in the country behind TX (who’s grid is isolated from the rest of the country), FL, and PA. On top of that, all new residential construction is required to install a PV system (with minimal exceptions), which certainly helps grid demand, and commercial/industrial operations are adopting solar to offset costs. The fact of the matter is that California is home to a fuckton of people as well as a lot of industry, and yes that demands a lot of power, but CA has been pushing local reliance for a while with promising results.

    The USSR was integrated too, and still broke up.

    This situation would be more similar to that than Brexit.

    The USSR wasn’t integrated, it was centralized. Shortages weren’t shared to reduce impact, resources where distributed by political connection first and need second. Movement was highly controlled.
  • Founding fathers roll in their graves so hard they become zombies and take back control to fix their mistakes
  • Great suggestion, I’ll put it near the top of the improbable pile.

    The things the founding fathers see as mistakes, right?

    Looks like slavery would be back on the menu.

    I think so, they were very much for “the will of the people” and if they saw the will of the people of today is that slavery is bad then they wouldn’t see it as a mistake.

    They would absolutely see what Trump and MAGA-GOP are doing as a subversion to that will of the people as a problem though and (after catching them up on 200+ years of technological and sociological development) would see the issues in their original implementation

    They were for the will of the rich, land owning men.
    I think that fox news and other right-wing propaganda media must be dealt with first. Otherwise they’ll continue to demonize any movement that attempts to fix things and ensure that nothing changes.
    Good luck. Feels pretty pointless over here right now.
    Don’t get sad - great angry

    I’ve been angry since I’ve been politically aware and I’m tired of it. It’s exhausting being angry and having no influence.

    I’m too old to be angry all the time.

    Don’t get sad - get organised?
    That just sounds like angry with extra steps. And people.
    Which is how you gain influence and do something about it, no?
    Considering how little influence those groups already have I doubt it
    In America, influence means money. If you can’t donate to a politician, you don’t have influence. That’s just how America works. You can’t build influence without wealth. As someome who has been involved with them, protests and marches don’t really cause a stir here any more, people just don’t care and it doesn’t really influence anything. You can get influence through violence, but people aren’t ready for that conversation and the right already has a head start on that anyway.

    I still remember being taught about how politics is America is a pendulum.

    It swings too far to the right and people get pissed and send it leftward. Then it swings too far to the left and people get pissed and send it rightward.

    I have waited my entire life for the swing leftward, and I think I identified what broke America.

    Let’s say that this pendulum swinging is necessary, we are a pack of goldfish swinging from left to right looking for something good with short short memories. This system can be metastable, you don’t make a ton of progress on anything but you just sorta bounce between the two sides and the status quo sticks around and you don’t slide into madness.

    When 9/11 happened and Ws war on terror emerged, I worried that it would break the system. But in 2008, Obama emerged with a progressive message of hope and change. The pendulum I was told about was about to swing left. I had lived through the right swing of Ws time in office, and now I got to see what the left had to offer (which as a leftist was very exciting).

    I watched two phenomenons happen concurrently that broke the system.

  • Obama captured the leftward energy that should have swung us back to the left and held it solidly in the center / center-right. He ran as a progressive firebrand and then governed from the center / center right. The big hop and change we got was nationwide Romneycare, a program devised by the Heritage Foundation which has done nothing but entrench the powers of the insurance industry into law.
  • Racism broke a large part of the voting public away from reality.
  • Obama wasn’t the first to do this, Clinton’s triangulation strategy was also a democrat governing from the center.

    So we have a captured Democratic Party, beholden to the donor class and they capture the periodic leftswing energy and hold it center / center-right. Things fail to get better and the population goes “well fuck the left doesn’t have any answers, let’s swing the pendulum back the other way”

    Over time the result is that the Overton window shifts and shifts and shifts until an oligarch is doing nazi salutes and the corporate media is going “oh he probably isnt really doing a nazi thing, he’s just advancing policies that nazis would love and saying things nazis would say and is excited and you know how hard it is to not do a nazi salute when you are excited.”

    Our only hope now is that trump doesn’t slowly boil us into fascism and overplays and the people revolt. But Americans have proven to be willing to just take it in the ass rougher and longer than I’d ever imagine.

    It’s more of a ratchet than a pendulum.

    But Americans have proven to be willing to just take it in the ass rougher and longer than I’d ever imagine.

    For a nation known for being tough guys with guns who will fuck their government, or any government that messes with them, up if necessary, all I’ve actually seen all my life is a bunch of pussies that let the wealthy walk all over us. And I’m not exactly a spring chicken.

    I really don’t know. Me personally, I’m pursuing citizenship in an EU country so I can at least have an exit strategy other than “drive to Canada and hope they let me in”. Other than that, I’m active in my union and I talk with my neighbors. I walk my dog and am visibly a Nice Normal Person who happens to be Queer.

    It’s scary being queer here, so I might tone that down a bit as I get more scared. Which is what They want, but, hey, I’m scared.

    It’s better to be safe, than to be a martyr. Good luck and best wishes!
    Thanks. My ancestors avoided WWI and WWII by emigrating to America. I can’t judge them for that, so it feels fair to give myself the same option.
    Wait for the Germans to liberate you, I guess.
    Or Mexico tbh, wait until the civil war is spent and watch the cartels roll in
    They’re sliding back into Nazism too.
    Yeah, but they’re still a lot less Nazi than the USA were in 1939.

    The US wasn’t run by Nazis in 1939 though. The same (rather popular) guy was President in 1939 was President in 1941.

    It’s very possible Germany becomes run by Nazis again.

    It’s very possible Germany becomes run by Nazis again.

    Nope. Not a chance. I do see how it could look like it, though.
    There’s around 25% convinced right wing supporters in Germany. That number hasn’t changed all that much in decades.
    Now shit looks bad cause all 25% have rallied behind a single party, instead of being split into reluctant conservative voters, non-voters and hardcore Nazi party voters like in the past.
    But 25% aren’t enough to take over our system. Our entire country was specifically designed to prevent that, from top to bottom.

    It is not possible at all. No one familiar with German law and culture think this. This is not a talking point I have ever heard discussed seriously. There ist probably hundreds of reasons why it could never happen. Our legal framework ist very strong and we have a strong civil framework of resistance in case something goes in that direction.
    3 is the only thing that’ll work, but things are going to get much worse before it’ll happen. The system is fundamentally and irreparably broken and needs to be thrown out.
    I’m not positive of what the answer is, but I truly believe it will somehow sometime. However, please remember that this website is an echo chamber and sells doom and gloom. There is always hope no matter what the doomers say, otherwise they wouldn’t be here.

    Remember your information diet guidelines!

    Limit social media intake, read with an eye towards bias and agenda, and verify all news with independent sources.

    And remember that comments are typically opinion and made by a guy that looks like a hairy Shrek.
    oh brother, you still think we're on a spiral, as in active? dude the spiral is complete, and now the monsters have control of all three branches of us government, they're going to do their damnedest to make sure they change just about everything that could possibly allow the power to be taken from them ever again. should have gotten the young people to vote, but wasn't important, looking a bit more important now, huh. dumbest thing i've ever seen, trump was president, fucked everything up, a million americans died bad from a pandemic due to his ineptitude, then young people stayed home and didn't vote democrat ...... can't make this shit up, the jokes write themselves. and now .... unstoppable destruction, and death.
    You need to go have a beer with some friends and get off the internet for now.
    I'm sure the French were asking this exact question in 1788.
    This is the way. Rise of the proletariat!
    France is also smaller than Texas. I would like to see a revolution, but we are so spread out I can’t see it happening.
    Not as a united nation, no. I think this is the start of the dissolution of the US as a single entity. The divisions will become clear soon.
    Does the size matter that much? For all practical purposes both are big enough that you can’t talk to everyone. The rest is surely just communications technology, no?

    Sure France is smaller but it was in 1789, going to Paris at this time would take days or weeks, now in a day or two anyone with a car could move through the US.

    The communication is way easier now, it’s much easier to get organized on a large scale.

    I would strongly argue that it is more difficult now.

    There is mass communication, yes, but 90% of that communication is rolled on over to the government with the exact location, search history, secrets, psychological profile, vices, everything at the tip of their fingers for every single dissident.

    In those days if a letter wasn’t signed and resistance posters were put up at odd hours, nobody would be able to track down the leader and who was doing it. Now, the surveillance state is so big, it would take a matter of hours to make a full roster of the resistance and have an “accidental” police raid on their house where they are killed “by mistake” and it is ruled a suicide.

    The entire success of revolution movements came out of anonymity and the fact that the government couldn’t snuff out the organization and break it up. Now, with technology, it is quite trivial to break anonymity anywhere on the main internet. Long lasting organization is much much harder.

    That isn’t even getting into engineered addictive media to keep people occupied and demotivates just enough to not get organized.

    Most of the nation has the surveillance equipment they need in their homes.

    Grass-roots local freaking organization. People keep waiting for someone to save them not realizing: they’re someone. Get involved with whatever local org is trying to improve people’s lives. Address the problems that the right wing is lying about solving. Support whatever local candidate aligns with that view or hell become that candidate. Then get more people on board.

    The extreme right flourishes because the establishment (left and right) has for decades ignored real people’s issues. You hears those interviews with Trump voters? They’re not talking about wanting to reinstate the Third Reich, they’re complaining about their real life hardships being ignored by politicians. And yeah Trump is obviously lying but desperate people will believe a lie if no one else is providing a better alternative.

    You’re not wrong, but I don’t see the relevance to the topic? Unless this is part of the public revolt?

    Organising to protect immigrants in your area is admirable, but how do you get rid of the necessity to do that? You’ll have to replace the politicians, no?

    And you’ll probably need to be revolution sized and well organised to be able to do that when they ignore any procedure or deal that doesn’t benefit them in the specific moment.

    Politicians decide things, but to actually make stuff happen, the government needs to collect taxes to pay for services that are then provided to the public. I think the idea here is to take out the middleman. You won’t solve the problem country wide, but you’ll help some people, and that’s still worth it. Work together without like-minded people locally, be an inspiration, and show that it works. I’ve only been very briefly part of an activist group (specialized in food saving), so probably best to look elsewhere for good advice on how to do this well.

    There’s not going to be a public revolt or at least I wouldn’t hold my breath. And besides public revolts may feel cathartic but historically they don’t have the kind of outcome we’d hope for. Not to mention the civil war that’d likely ensue.

    There’s no overnight solution to this problem. And you can’t start from the top if you’re not already a billionaire with a private social media network. But you can get people on your side or rather show that you’re on their side.

    The real enemy is the same for both of us: the 0.01%. Trump supporters have just been brainwashed into thinking Trump is the man to solve that problem. And to be fair a lot of the left has been brainwashed into thinking the establishment Democrats are the only way forward.

    But in the end it’s the extreme right that profits from us screaming insults at each other.

    When has there been a revolution without a revolt in all of history?

    When has there been a 180° change without a revolution in all of history?

    In much of the world, Unions were forged in blood of many revolts.

    Nation separation and independence was exclusively revolution.

    Even the civil rights (which most people have been whitewashed into thinking was peaceful) had the black panthers. They have been completely villified, but the civil rights movement would not have succeeded without their violence.

    Protest, absolutely. And possibly violent ones, could be. But until we get a good majority of people on our side we’re just going to be fighting our own while the oligarchs laugh. You want to start a fist fight with a conservative over pronouns? It sounds fun but it won’t accomplish anything.

    I’m not saying we can get to where we need to be 100% nonviolently but it has to start there. You have to build a base before you can overthrow anything. You’re talking about skipping to the last step without taking all the necessary steps in between. The revolution part is always romanticized but all the hard work that goes into it is ignored. That’s how Occupy failed so miserably.

    I believe this is the right video. It should go a long way to answering your question.

    Top down organization of political parties like the Democrats in the US is relatively new. Last 50+ years or so, and antidemocratic. Look to when the Democratic party was much better for the average man. And one of the differences you’ll see was it was much more bottom up. Local organization and community building is vital. Not just for left anarchist/libertarians like myself. But to any common man looking for a political party to represent them. Leaving leadership to their own devices is how leadership became so out of touch.

    The Secret Reason the Dems Keep Losing

    YouTube

    Iirc, Reagan was the first to strongarm a party line and establish the strategy of voting for power over anything which has proven very effective, with courts, gerrymandering, and stalled electoral reforms very helpful to form this current opportunity.

    But with the current system where it is, I have trouble seeing any such grass roots being able to accomplish much until they gain a majority enough, for long enough to re-establish the checks & balances. Electoral voting and the two party system makes it incredibly hard for a new party to establish, and even then they will get bogged down in the same malintent behaviour exhibited now. At least enough to appear powerless, ineffectual or otherwise not making change enough to keep taking seats, like the Democrats of the last few cycles.

    Do you envision some kind of path short of a revolution to throw out the current politicians?

    We don’t need a new party though. And no one should be arguing for one. As it would be ineffectual until we change the system as you said. What we need is local and Community leadership for the Democratic Party. What we need is to not leave the leadership decisions up to those in Washington.

    Yes top down leadership can be very effective. But not in the long term. Otherwise the Soviet Union would still exist. Otherwise our parties would still represent us. If we want a party to start representing us again. We need to stop making it them and us. And just make it us. And the only way to do that is to stop relying on someone to lead nationally. Start leading locally. With the national parties only duties to coordinate between new York Democrats, Florida Democrats, Missouri Democrats, and California Democrats. And we get there by community action.