Molly WhiteDec 22, 2024

remember when mainstream news outlets published a bunch of incredibly irresponsible articles about how rich people were getting off crypto, and then people bought in and got wrecked over the two years of "crypto winter" that followed?

anyway here's a WSJ headline i just saw: "Young Men Are Making Risky Bets on Crypto and Politics—and Raking It In Right Now"

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/young-men-investing-bitcoin-stocks-sports-betting-1d44cf8c?st=jxsVqM

#crypto #cryptocurrency

Show threadMolly White

#crypto #cryptocurrency

Dec 22, 2024 at 4:17amWeb
Show threadSteve RigginsDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff and the risk is a thousand times higher because it’s a scam
Show threadLeafletDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff why invest when you could play the lottery, much higher return on investment.
Show threadIvan TowlsonDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff 62% over 11 months is okay I guess but my roulette portfolio made 3600% in 2 minutes
Show threadDrew BreunigDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff It’s doubly nuts because they used a 40% bond allocation baseline. A responsible viz would peg it against a broad market index, and you’d see the gains aren’t as pronounced.
Show threadConlan SpanglerDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff Am I understanding this correctly? A hypothetical portfolio of only non-traditional investments that have gone up—and none that have crashed and burned—would have outperformed traditional investments? This seems… unremarkable.
Show threadGentleman TechnologistDec 22, 2024

@conlan @molly0xfff this, exactly. High risk investments have high returns because of the risk of no (or negative) returns.

If you cherry-pick only the winners retrospectively, then obviously you'll have high returns.

The trick is picking the winners *before* you know what the returns are.

Show threadDavid Fleetwood - RG AdminDec 22, 2024
@conlan @molly0xfff And all exactly the ones that went up and none of that money to the 1000x more that pumped and dumped because retroactive investing is the new hotness!
Show threadahistorical immaterialistDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff risky investments occasionally make huge returns? Huge if true.
Show threadDrew McCormackDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff If you just bought NVDIA in January, you’d be up 200%. Hindsight is a beautiful thing.
Show threadToon Van de Putte 🍉Dec 22, 2024
@drewmccormack @molly0xfff I'm going to start an investment advice blog where I just tell people about previous winning lottery numbers.
Show threadTor Iver WilhelmsenDec 22, 2024
@toon @drewmccormack @molly0xfff There are actually people who make money selling «systems» for lotteries, as if previous results have any influence on future results.
Show threadDarryl RammDec 22, 2024

@molly0xfff

Is jigglier line betterer?

Show threadToon Van de Putte 🍉Dec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff yes, and we all know that an investment horizon of barely a year is a sensible choice.
Show threadAndrei KucharavyDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff reminds me of a certain famous quant blocking me back on Twitter after I pointed out that any investment strategy will almost certainly have a “better-than-SP-return” period.
Show threadGadgetGavDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff Which stocks & bonds are in their comparison portfolio? If they’re going to pick and name the crypto portfolio, shouldn’t they tell us that?
And this is the WSJ..? What a joke.
“Highly volatile portfolio shows impressive gains in carefully selected small window. More on pages 3,4,5&7” 🙄
Show threadSeiðrDec 22, 2024
@molly0xfff And if my grandmother had wheels, she would be a zombie bicycle.