Olivier Simard-CasanovaNov 9, 2024
Mastodon/Fediverse vs. Bluesky rapid check In the past few months, Bluesky (left) has seen massive growth During the same period, the Fediverse (Mastodon + other parts of the ecosystem) has seen… nothing The monthly active users curve remains stubbornly flat (right) 1/6 #SocialWeb
Show threadOlivier Simard-CasanovaNov 9, 2024
An important methodological precaution Bluesky and Fediverse define “active user” differently We cannot directly compare the two numbers What we can do, though, is compare how each of these numbers evolve Which is what I'm doing here 2/6
Show threadOlivier Simard-CasanovaNov 9, 2024
The Fediverse user base is ~75% made of Mastodon users Mastodon's user base isn't flat, it's actually shrinking And despite Brazil banning Xitter or Xitter removing the block feature, there were no waves of new users on Mastodon 3/6
Show threadOlivier Simard-CasanovaNov 9, 2024
The only analysis I want to add is that Bluesky has now become the de facto largest open social web ecosystem And considering its ascending numbers, plus a few other signals, I wouldn't be surprised if Bluesky not only cements this position, but also becomes a true mainstream platform 4/6

RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:esmiuxk53vmsllayghrq676w/post/3laj5ftcb5s26
Olivier Simard-Casanova (@o.simardcasanova.net)

Damn! I don't have systemic data on this, and I may be wrong, but it really feels that Bluesky has reached escape velocity If my intuition is correct, it means that the network externalities have reached the stage, or are very close to, where they start sustaining themselves #SocialWeb [contains quote post or other embedded content]

Bluesky Social
Show threadOlivier Simard-CasanovaNov 9, 2024
I know part of the tech community has recently migrated to Bluesky It seems that building on Bluesky instead of building on the Fediverse now has drastically better prospects I wouldn't be surprised if the Bluesky ecosystem experiences a boom of new third-party apps and services 5/6
Show threadOlivier Simard-Casanova
Sources: — Bluesky: bskycharts.edavis.dev/edavis.dev/b... — Fediverse: fedidb.org — Mastodon: fedidb.org/software/mas... 6/6
bsky users total (Munin :: edavis.dev :: bskycharts.edavis.dev :: bsky users total)

Nov 9, 2024 at 2:09pmWeb