Matt BlazeNov 3, 2024

Four years ago, even before the polls closed, we were bombarded with false and misleading claims of election irregularities and fraud. Most of it was obvious (to experts in elections) BS - vote-flipping satellites and the like - but it was exhausting to deal with from sheer volume. And it convinced enough people that we had a literal insurrection attempt.

This year I expect at least the same volume of disinformation, but that it will be of better quality and less obvious.

Be ready.

Show threadMatt Blaze

In particular, I expect less of the wildly fantastic "Venezuelan hackers used Italian Satellites to flip votes via China", which at this point just about no one is fooled by, but a lot more of taking mundane, normal election activities (someone moving a box of ballots) and casting them in a falsely sinister light.

That stuff is very easy to generate and time consuming to refute. The only way to win is to not get sucked in in the first place.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Nov 4, 2024 at 12:06amWeb
Show threadMatt BlazeNov 4, 2024
Remember that elections are extremely complex events, and each jurisdiction - over 5000 in the US! - does things a little differently, governed by state law and local practice. When someone shows you video or other "proof" of some supposed nefarious activity in a place you aren't specifically familiar with, be skeptical. If there's wrongdoing, there are avenues for them to come forward and prove it.
Show threadMatt BlazeNov 4, 2024
Remember also that part of the adversary here is foreign governments, not actual candidates. Their goal is not necessarily to pick the winner, but rather to weaken the legitimacy of the US government's ability to function. Disinformation about election integrity is a central weapon in their arsenal for achieving this.
Show threadMatt BlazeNov 4, 2024

So the risk here is not so much that disinformation will actually result in a legitimately elected president being denied office; I suppose that's *possible*, but a lot would have to come together for that to work.

The real risk - and the intended threat - is that widespread and lingering unfounded doubt about the election's integrity will consume so much attention that the government can't govern (especially with regard to foreign policy) at full capacity.

Show threadMatt BlazeNov 4, 2024
I naturally hope I'm wrong about the upcoming onslaught of post-election disinformation. But this thread is my best guess of what we might expect and what we need to be prepared for.
Show threadNicole ParsonsNov 4, 2024

@mattblaze

Or some Republican high on their supply of the Trump Cult, will pull a "GSA Emily Murphy".

Emily Murphy withheld intelligence briefings from the Biden transition team for personal gain.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-not-getting-intelligence-reports-because-trump-officials-won-t-n1247294

It gave Republican allies in Putin & MBS's circles valuable time to position themselves to advantage.

Kushner. Mnuchin. Wilbur Ross. Made out like bandits. Remember the binder that went missing?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-not-getting-intelligence-reports-because-trump-officials-won-t-n1247294

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/missing-russian-binder-trump-rcna130256

1/2

Biden not getting intelligence reports because Trump officials won't recognize him as president-elect

The Trump admin's unwillingness to acknowledge that Biden won has led to an unusual restriction on the flow of national security info to the president-elect.

NBC News
Show threadNicole ParsonsNov 4, 2024

2/2

Emily Murphy was handsomely rewarded for her foot dragging afterwards with a lucrative career appointment at George Mason.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/why-wont-emily-murphy-just-do-her-job/617184/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/us/politics/emily-murphy-trump-biden.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_W._Murphy

Why Won’t Emily Murphy Just Do Her Job?

In delaying the transition, the General Services Administration chief is acting like an ideologue.

The Atlantic
Show threadDarwin WoodkaNov 4, 2024

@mattblaze

Oh they'll try to do that no matter what.

Show threadMaxilo OveritNov 4, 2024
@mattblaze There should be a national election disaster preparedness unit like FEMA. Let's get some secure trailers out to those ballot counting operations!
Show threadcalcifer 🧯Nov 4, 2024

@mattblaze in part, this is because it opens the door for a “the US is a failed democracy that’s a danger to the world, we need to take action against them” narrative. But people think this is somehow a wacky conspiracy theory and not documented strategy. @nomad

edit: closing quotes

Show threadSusan VilleNov 4, 2024
@mattblaze "The goal to weaken the legitimacy of US government's ability to function by foreign governments" - in short: the same weapon US disinformation web campaigns have been using to weaken foreign governments since the www exists.
Show threadAdrian SanabriaNov 4, 2024
@mattblaze I’m simultaneously relieved it is so complex (and thus, difficult to attack) and incredulous it actually works