Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
Latest NASA global temperature data.
Earth has never been hotter since Homo sapiens (we) discovered agriculture in the early Holocene. Likely even since the Eemian interglacial 120.000 years ago.
Fossil coal, oil and gas emissions caused it.
We need to stop making it worse.
Yes, we can if we want to.
Nov 3, 2024 at 9:05pmWeb
Show threadBashStKidNov 3, 2024
@rahmstorf
When I’m being a bit of a pedant, I point out that this crisis isn’t an undeflectable asteroid, we could quite literally turn a few hundred valves and stop all oil & gas production tomorrow. Or next week at the latest.
It’s entirely under our control, and the solution is easy and clear.
Show threadChookMother 🇦🇺🦘Nov 4, 2024
@BashStKid @rahmstorf The difficulty is in persuading our political leaders to do that, or replacing them with people who will.
Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024

@anne_twain @BashStKid @rahmstorf two key issues that i see daily. you can't just turn off fossil driven power generation. germany has a huge dependence on fossil fuels (unions?) and an ideological opposition to nuclear. turn off 77% of germany's power?

second, and possibly more important, a lot of the gulf states are more or less 100% dependent on fossil fuel revenues. turn that to 0% and what happens in the next 25 years?

we've been at this for 50 years, trying to turn off fossils, but we always delay it because... jobs, money, trade, whatever. it's going to need a "shock" event. even then i am not sure the species will act.

Show threadBashStKidNov 4, 2024

@pavsmith @anne_twain @rahmstorf

I’m pointing out this crisis is entirely and immediately soluble.

Obviously there would be tremendous immediate dislocation if we pulled the plug today. But don’t forget to factor in the far greater future dislocation if we don’t.

We only lack those alternatives because the same governments as today spent 30 years with heads in the sand on business as usual.

Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024

@BashStKid @anne_twain @rahmstorf i agree with you because it is all part of my Day Job (tm), but it is going to require a lot of people from all levels of society to pull their collective finger out. something they've basically put off for 50 years.

i still worry about the Gulf problem though, i don't see what they do if oil revenues disappear.

Show threadBashStKidNov 4, 2024

@pavsmith @anne_twain @rahmstorf

If you put the heads of Repsol or Cepsa in front of the people of Valencia right now, they’d sling more than mud. There’s a preview of the future if we do nothing.

As for the Gulf states, they’re all doubling down on increased production, so it’s a question of abolishing their market.

Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024

@BashStKid @anne_twain @rahmstorf for the Gulf states was more concerned with where their money comes from, and how do they feed their population. even the Saudi sovereign wealth fund can't support a whole country for decades or longer.

as for your Valencia comment, yeah, those people have a right to be angry. and florida. and the caribbean islands. sydaney, even.

don't worry, we'll likely starve before we drown.

Show threadBashStKidNov 4, 2024
@pavsmith @anne_twain @rahmstorf
Only being mildly sarcastic, the Gulf states have a lot of unoccupied land, sun, could have plenty of solar to run the ac, desalination, a bunch of data centres and shitty LLMs, and export the rest.
Could convert the North & Ghawar fields to carbon capture and accept tanker loads of carbon waste.
Probably not the first place you’d want to see a big expansion of proliferating nuclear.
Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024

@BashStKid @anne_twain @rahmstorf funny, i believe i am seeing less resistance to nuclear, and with the SMR's about to start going "live", they make for an interesting alternative source of power.

going even smaller i saw an upcoming symposium on nuclear powered merchant shipping.

i'll need to get a beer in hand and watch developments in that space!

Show threadChookMother 🇦🇺🦘Nov 4, 2024
@pavsmith @BashStKid @rahmstorf If this isn't a shock event, then I don't know what is.
Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024

@anne_twain @BashStKid @rahmstorf a lot of the problems are going to be a lot less dramatic. ongoing droughts in the mediterranean basin, for example. oh, and then the storm in Valencia, which wasn't as big as the one near Lyon a week earlier, but they were so very, very lucky. tornadoes making the US midwest, and hurricanes making the gulf coast including a lot of florida uninsurable.

this one from juneish this year. 5 hurricanes underway at the same time buzzing around the US like flies. too early for them to get genuine big, but it is a lot going at once.

Show threadPaul McO'Smith IIINov 4, 2024
@anne_twain @BashStKid @rahmstorf and just for fun, let's kick another hurricane off in the GoM! in november!!!
Show threadHarald WernerNov 3, 2024

@rahmstorf

We want, but do they?

Show threadLukasNov 3, 2024
@rahmstorf I'm all for it, but I'm a little confused by one of the labels. Why does it say "Non-linear trend" when the section is clearly linear? The x and y axes seems to be linear, and while the slope increases some years later, the label association is in the middle of a very straight section
Show threadposixgnulinuxNov 3, 2024

@lukstru @rahmstorf

The black line as a whole is not linear.

But maybe it's confusing, that the label points to a more or less linear looking/appearing part of it.

Show threadGemütlichNov 4, 2024
@lukstru It is a hint because it looks linear but it is a 12 months running mean that just looks linear by chance.
Show threadehem. dystopod 🔥🏚️🗿☮️🌍❤️🌱Nov 3, 2024
@rahmstorf Any thoughts on why global av. air temp. now rose again above 2023's levels? (Even though we are post El Nino.)
Show threadOutOfSpace 不割席Nov 4, 2024
@rahmstorf So how do we get people to want it?
Show threadAnpaNov 4, 2024
@rahmstorf 57 Unternehmen erzeugen 80% der Emissionen. Ich sehe keine Hoffnung