TL;DR
- Polls: tied
- Early vote: huge
- Ground game: Dem dominance
- Ads: Dem edge
- Vibes: Dem edge

Help us win: donate.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/octeom_24?refcode=digital-socialmedia-bw-threads-103124

And—no matter where you are, you can help Wisconsin go blue by volunteering. Sign up for a phone bank or a door-knocking shift here:
wisdems.org/volunteer

http://wisdems.org/volunteer

Okay, let’s dig in.

POLLS.

The polling averages say Wisconsin is tied.

FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by 0.8% in Wisconsin.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

You can take your pick of polling aggregators.

VoteHub: Harris +0.6
New York Times: Harris +0.6
270toWin: Harris +0.7
DecisionDesk HQ: Trump +0.5
Real Clear Politics: Harris +0.2

The Marquette University Law School poll is the Wisconsin gold-standard poll. Their final pre-election poll came out yesterday. They say Harris 50, Trump 49.

People working in politics are voraciously consuming internal polls and modeling. They’re helpful for guiding strategy and targeting. But I’ll spill the non-big non-secret: they, too, say the race is tied here.

Want to make the race un-tied, in our direction? Seriously, we’re still spending late money on things that can move the needle—like highly targeted digital GOTV ads. Help out:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/octeom_24?refcode=digital-socialmedia-bw-threads-103124

EARLY VOTE

What do we see in Wisconsin?

One thing is clear: it’s massive. Days ago, we eclipsed the final early+mail numbers from 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 (and, of course, every midterm)—and the numbers keep rising.

1,224,779 have already cast ballots.

519,453 mail-in ballots. Historically, and likely this year, lopsidedly Dem.

705,326 in-person early votes. Historically, 50-50 R/D.

https://x.com/TobyMGData/status/1852024016418070566

What we don’t know for certain is who these voters are supporting. We’ve seen a huge jump in early voting in red areas like Waukesha County.

BUT… these early voters have been a bit more likely to be female than in the past. 👀

Unlike other states, when you register to vote in Wisconsin, you don’t register with a political party.

So any data you see about Dem vs Rep strength in early voting is based on modeling—informed guesses.

Each municipality processes its own in-person and mail-in ballots. There are two methods.

Some, like Madison, send them out to individual precincts to process at the same time as their Election Day ballots.

Others, e.g. Milwaukee, do it differently—which affects Election Night.

The absentee ballots that are processed at Central Count locations are typically reported *after* the counts from precincts have come in. So in Milwaukee, for example, you’ll get “100% of precincts reporting”—but many ballots still to be counted.

The bigger the Democratic advantage among these early ballots, the bigger the change can be once the absentee ballots are counted. Which gives rise to the “red mirage”—where Trump seems to be doing better—and then the “blue shift.”

This gave rise to countless conspiracy theories in 2020, all debunked.

Republicans killed a bill in Wisconsin that would’ve allowed early processing of absentee ballots and removed this effect.

So, expect some bad-faith GOP conspiracy-mongering again this time.

ORGANIZING AND GOTV

In Wisconsin, Democrats organize year-round. We’ve done it since the spring of 2017. We’ve been building our Get Out The Vote operation for, oh, 90 months.

The GOP? Not so much.

Our model is to hire staff that work with county parties and neighbor-to-neighbor organizing teams in every part of the state. These teams are led by volunteers. We now have hundreds.