@misc Every statistical model has Trump at >50%. Betting markets have Trump at 65%. Right now, you should be more surprised if Trump DOESN'T win the election.

@uexo @misc I saw some reports that the betting markets are being manipulated. That may sound like a crazy thing to do, but I former co-worker who ran for congress told me that there are a number of donors who simply want to support the winner, presumably to gain influence. So it might pay off in donations if you can skew polls, etc. in your favor.

@bzdev @uexo @misc it's also worth noting that betting markets are heavily influenced by the type of people who would bet on a presidential election. Someone worried about Harris' chances, or bregdugingly supporting her, but still going to vote for her, is far less likely to bet a bunch of money than a "the trump train has no brakes, choo choo motherfuckers" person, who a: believes it's a sure thing, and b: is so sure of that they're going to bet tons of money.