Socialist Mormon SatanistThe Green Party threat: Could Jill Stein shift votes in Wisconsin?
jordanlundCould she?
I mean, anything’s possible.
Seems highly UNLIKELY.
2016:
Trump - 1,405,284
Clinton - 1,382,536
Difference - 22,748
Stein - 31,072
2020:
Biden - 1,630,866
Trump - 1,610,184
Difference - 20,682
Green Party failed to make the ballot. Howie Hawks (Green candidate) was a write in. - 1,089
But there’s another confounding factor… Covid deaths. 16,723 deaths.
See, my thing with Jill Stein is that I don’t think that she takes votes from Dems. I know the whole spoiler theory, etc, but I’m not buying it.
I think the people who are angry enough to vote for her instead of the Dem party, would NOT have voted Dem party anyway. I think they wouldn’t have voted at all.
Republicans will vote for Trump. Dems will vote for Harris. And people who wouldn’t have voted for either, MAY vote for Stein or the Socialist parties (like in my personal case).
I just don’t know any strong Democrats that would risk anything going to Trump, just to protest and vote for Stein. If Stein weren’t running, those voters would just protest by withholding their votes from everyone.
Harris is still going to win by a landslide, because Stein’s votes were never going for her anyway.
Absent Stein, there’s nowhere for left leaning voters to go besides the Democratic candidate, and given that those folks tend to be MORE motivated to vote, not less, I don’t see them staying home.
I’m sticking with my instinct that Stein voters are mostly protest voters and hardcore Green Party supporters. Neither group would have been likely to vote for Harris anyway.
That’s also why I think it’s hilarious if the Republicans really are bankrolling her campaign, because it’s a huge waste of money.
Well, we see what happens to Green Party voters when they don’t make the slate… from 2016 to 2020, they lost 30,000 or so votes.
The Green Party will limp on, but things got so divisive with Jill Stein and the Putin stuff, they’ll either bail on her and re-brand, or people will actually start to make a new third party. I think the re-brand is the more likely scenario, because starting a third party from scratch is tough.
I really believe we need 5 parties.
Far left, corporate left, social left-fiscal right, corporate right, far right.
So we have Green/Progressive, Democratic, Libertarian, what USED to be the Republican party, and the current MAGA/Q Republicans.
But really, the only parties that function are Democrats and Republicans.