Mastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

Early Voting Not So Deep Dive

Yesterday wrote this long Early Voting Deep Dive thread https://mastodon.online/@mastodonmigration/113324466206605610 for people who really like to wonk out, but that's not everyone, so what are the key points?

1. We're running two to three points ahead of where we were in 2020. even though the early vote is very old, it's very white, it's very rural, and also Republicans are trying much harder in the early vote this time than they did in 2020. This is excellent and unexpected.

1/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Mastodon Migration VOTED (@[email protected])

Early Voting Deep Dive So, what can we glean about the election from the early voting data so far? Bottom line, things are going very well. Much better than expected. It is still early, but there are a lot of reasons for us to be optimistic and them to be nervous. This long thread summarizes some of the commentary by Simon Rosenberg in todays Hopium Chronicles talk: https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/working-hard-and-closing-strong-my Recommend you listen to it all, but what follows are some of the saliant bits. 1/n @[email protected]

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Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

2. In the battleground we only really have lots of data so far from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and we're running ahead of 2020 in those three battleground states. Michigan is going particularly well, mostly due to the black vote in Detroit, and especially older black women.

2/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

3. Late voters are overwhelmingly going to be younger voters, which should mean that the early vote should look more Republican than it did four years ago and it doesn't.

4. Republicans recognize that discouraging early voting in 2020 was a big mistake and so they've been working hard to change that. But the fact is, there's still almost a three to one advantage in Pennsylvania for Democrats among these early voters.

3/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

5. The Republicans spin everything and there is no attempt to spin the early vote as being positive for them. There's nothing because their performance so far with early voting is horrible.

6. There is a clear demonstrable surge of older democrats voting at much higher levels than they voted four years ago.

7. In all likelihood the independent vote will be more democratic this time than it was four years ago.

4/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Show threadMastodon Migration

8. We also know we're going to get a higher share of Republicans in most places than we did four years ago.

9. We're very pleased with what we're seeing right now. And again, the indication that they are worried is that they're not even trying to spin this data at this point.

5/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Oct 18, 2024 at 9:00amWeb
Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

Current Early Voting Summary

National - Dem 3,845,372 (54.7%) GOP 2,550,036 (36.3%) >>> UP 1,295,336
Swing States - Dem 1,180,874 (55.7%) GOP 720,637 (34.0%) >>> UP 460,237

GA - Dem 153,229 (47.9%) GOP 151,649 (47.4%) >>> UP 1,580
MI - Dem 429,970 (55.2%) GOP 275,061 (35.3%) >>> UP 154,909
PA - Dem 427,442 (69.8%) GOP 172,163 (28.1%) >>> UP 255,279
WI - Dem 106,942 (40.2%) GOP 49,955 (18.8%) >>> UP 56,987

6/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

Show threadMastodon MigrationOct 18, 2024

Early Voting Resources

TargetEarly National: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&view_type=National

TargetEarly Battleground States: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&view_type=PresBS

TargetEarly PA: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=PA&view_type=state

TargetEarly MI: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=MI&view_type=state

[It's easy to change the state in above links to look at any other state]

US Vote Foundation State's Early Voting Dates: https://www.usvotefoundation.org/early-voting-dates

7/n

@KamalaHarrisWin

TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard

Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates.

TargetEarly