So here's an interesting Q.:

Many of us want Rachel Reeves to forego her fiscal straight-jacket & take on more debt to invest in infrastructure & the public sector, on the Keynsian logic that this will then pay-off in the future (medium-term), with enhanced economic growth to help pay the debt.

But, what if the gilt markets (or more accurately the traders & buyers) do not have sufficient appetite for more UK sovereign debt?

Answer: create more (public) credit/money?

#investment #
h/t FT

@ChrisMayLA6 why is raising taxes not a part of this calculation? Historically the world was doing well when corporation tax was ~60%; rather than pay the tax, shareholders re-invested profits in wages, plant and product development. Untaxed capital gains is becoming recognised as a workaround for income tax and capital gains tax is half what income tax is, hence the workaround to not declare income. I know the Beatles wrote a song slagging off the taxman but c'mon

@Mschatelaine

Its a good Q.; there is some talk of raising (some) taxes, but Reeves & Starmer *did* very publicly took a self-denying ordinance on the key aspects of the tax system....

@ChrisMayLA6 @Mschatelaine

Richard Murphy (https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/) argues that the government doesn't need the gilts market - indeed that it is the gilts market that needs the government - though he says little about the currency speculators.

He also argues that the 'national debt' is a misnomer - it's really a useful national savings scheme that should be expanded (and in any case it's mostly owed to the Bank of England, ie. to ourselves, so a very odd kind of 'debt' indeed).

As things stand, 'unfunded' public expenditure might crash sterling, just as 'unfunded' tax cuts did, leading to higher interest rates and recession (though not, I think, as bad as the Truss crash, because there is no evidence that tax cuts create future growth, but much public expenditure certainly does).

So there has to be a comprehensive reform package: ending BofE independence, weakening the value of sterling - interest rates - inflation links, ditching the current 'fiscal rules', and as Elaine and @Sine_Nomine say, using tax to curtail inflationary pressure.

The odd thing is that Reeves has spoken about making tax 'fair' - all it would actually take, I think, is a few steps to equalise the proportion of income and wealth taken in tax at all income/wealth levels - such as equalising tax on earned and unearned income - because at present the tax system is so scewed in favour of the rich.

This could be phased over a long period - because governments don't need to remove excess money (inflationary pressure) until perhaps long after they've spent it into the economy.

Sorry to go on - just thinking aloud here really...

The stock market is failing according to the CBI. So why don’t we just let it go?

I posted this on Twitter this morning: https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1942861045426516103 My point is serious. The CBI is saying that the situation with regard to the UK stock exchange is getting desperate, because it is losing out to overseas markets and not attracting sufficient business. The question that needs to be asked is, why is that?...

Funding the Future

@GeofCox @Mschatelaine @Sine_Nomine

Yes, I know Murphy's position well & broadly agree with it... the difficulty is right now, the Govt. chooses to believe it is dependent on the Gilt market & so their appetite for debt is apposite... but as you say (as does Murphy), there is nothing inevitable, natural or necessary about how the current fiscal situation is understood or structured.... but the poltical will to change that is very clearly absent from Reeves & her colleagues

@ChrisMayLA6

It's so disappointing, isn't it ? Were you in that conversation the other day Chris, about how bold the Attlee and Wilson governments were, and all the lasting good they did ?

@Mschatelaine @Sine_Nomine

@GeofCox @Mschatelaine @Sine_Nomine

Indeed, I was.... this lot really are not up to that sort of star, even remotely....

@ChrisMayLA6 @GeofCox @Mschatelaine recently listened to this podcast https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0173h00
Shockingly, the very basis for austerity, for any kind of neoliberal economics policies are a dead duck. I won't spoil it if you haven't heard it... apologies if you already have...
More or Less - Austerity: A Spreadsheet Error? - BBC Sounds

The story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper

BBC

@Sine_Nomine @GeofCox @Mschatelaine

Ah yes, its a well known story & revelation in academic political economy - where the claim(s) around the scope & effect of public debt to GDP levels were treated with some scepticism in any case.... but good to see it gaining wider traction