Hmm so it looks like you started with some absurd priors and you were able to use them to prove some absurd conclusions. Now you're acting like this is a fundamental challenge to the idea of "rationality" and you've made a wikipedia page. Seems to me like you just selected some absurd priors. At absolute most what you've proven is that game theory kind of sucks

(This might be kind of vague so this is the kind of thing I'm talking about: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_mugging A shocking number of problems of this type that make me immediately respond with "why do you think this is a difficult problem?" seem to wind up mentioning Eliezer Yudkowsky when you look into why people are talking about them.)

@mcc You know, I already knew Roko's Basilisk was stupid, but for some reason it never occurred to me before now that it's just self-proclaimed rationalists reinventing God and Hell the hard way.

@jwisser The way I first learned about Bayesian reasoning was in the evolution-vs-intelligent-design-arguments Usenet group. Most of the laziest proofs of the existence of God by internet theists leveraged Bayes' theorem, and could be most easily punctured with the sentence "you selected bad priors". Now a couple decades pass and people who know about Bayes' theorem but not theology are re-inventing "God" from first principles for different reasons, but with very similar bad priors

@mcc @jwisser Isn't a core part of the Roko's Basilisk argument: This thing works out the same way no matter what your priors are?