floofloofHarris leads Trump in polls, but remains an underdog due to the Electoral College
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Sounds familiar
kescusayWhich is good. It will prevent complacency, by either the Harris campaign or her supporters.
She really is the underdog in this race. The deck’s stacked against her.
No. It’s not good. It means we are going to get screwed by the electoral college bullshit again.
You misunderstand. The fact that the EC is undemocratic bullshit isn’t what’s good. What’s good is that we’re staying aware of the problem. We know there’s a not insignificant chance Harris ends up Clinton 2.0. So this time, we have a chance to avoid complacency.
demesisx
jordanlundRemoved, meta, mod abuse.
Being motivated doesn’t change 300 year old bullshit laws that remove the democratic power of of all but a handful of swing states voting.
Boomer Humor DoomergodThe fact that it’s this close further erodes my faith in humanity. That’s not good.
He’s Jim jones.
Except the conservatives aren’t trying to just kill themselves.
Charles Manson then
LucidlethargyLol, no… They’ll try to do it again. If Trump is defeated, it will be despite the normal Democrat idiocy.
I’m very against Trump, but fuck the democrats. They’re overconfident morons.
I made a meme about you:
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Cat gentleman doing my part! 💪😻
Transient PunkCat theydie doing my part!
JesusCat doing my part! 💪😻
GhostalmediaDon’t stop. The popular vote isn’t enough, and Trump is still a slight favorite to win.
Hope she wins, and pushes through something to dismantle the collage. We need ranked choice.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a good first step: en.wikipedia.org/…/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta…
This is just a bandaid and the conservative justices on the supreme court will strike it down for some stupid reason.
Not sure how. The Constitution is pretty explicit that States get to determine how they send delegates to the EC.
There’s a whole Wikipedia article about the legality of it: …wikipedia.org/…/Constitutionality_of_the_Nationa…
With this Supreme Court, my rule.of thumb is they will always pick the worst side of a debate, even if that goes against precedent and the constitution.
It’s also very explicit that interstate compacts require congressional approval.
FenrirIIIDon’t hold your breath. The system works for the right people
“The right people” I see what you did there.
ikiddUnless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn’t happening. IE: it isn’t happening.
Almost the whole house is up for reelection this November as well, so maybe at least that part can be handled.
The whole house and 1/3 of the senate is up for reelection every 2 years…
Yes, but I feel as though people are more active this election, so I think there’s a larger chance of at least getting rid of the super majority in the house.
There are in fact a couple of workarounds for this.
If Harris wins and Dems get enough majority control of both houses (enough to get around likely no votes from maverick Dems like Joe Manchin), then the Senate majority leader (Schumer) can lower the bar for a filibuster to a bare majority.
Then pass a new law appointing nine new Supreme Court justices. Harris nominates them and the Senate approves them.
Then pass a new federal law that requires the electoral vote of states to follow the nationwide popular vote, as per the Compact. You get the same effect without needing the States to sign on, and with the court packed the law hopefully will be able to withstand the challenges.
Plan B - if we really do need a constitutional amendment to fix this and abolish the Electoral College outright - then drop the filibuster as above, but then follow this plan https://www.vox.com/2020/1/14/21063591/modest-proposal-to-save-american-democracy-pack-the-union-harvard-law-review
Basically pass a law that allows each neighborhood of DC to be admitted in as a new state - so 127 in all - and with the new supermajority of states (and corresponding supermajorities in both Houses), pass whatever constitutional amendments are required.
IEE: It isn’t happening.
It would also require the Democrat will to move that mountain as above, which I don’t think exists even if there were supermajorities and governors to do it. They benefit almost as much from the 2-party system and electoral college as the Republicans.
even if there were supermajorities and governors to do it.
Just pointing out again that this wouldn't strictly be necessary (at least in the first phases).
They benefit almost as much from ... electoral college as the Republicans.
Not really seeing how this would be. Don't Dems have a disadvantage here?
It would also require the Democrat will to move that mountain as above, which I don’t think exists
Fair point. I wish I could disagree.
They benefit almost as much from the 2-party system ... as the Republicans.
Right now I'm pro-Dem especially because I don't like the other option but ... it would be so nice to realistically have other options.
Even without ranked choice it would be an upgrade to be rid of the college
vaultdweller013We cant dismantle the electoral college easily, but what we can do is revoke the law putting caps on the number of representatives and electoral college votes. It wouldnt be perfect but it may be enough to knee cap the GOP for awhile. Also pass a law that allows reps to vote remotely from home offices in their districts.
99% of the problems stem from the house not getting bigger over the last 100 years.
Yep, both the house and college were meant to expand with tge population, which makes their issues far less egregious. Is the electoral college particularly good? Fuck no, but it was never meant to meant to be capped either it was still a proportional system. Hell the only reason either were capped was due to the fact that at the time the population was in flux both in number and location, but it shouldve been uncapped either in the 50s or 60s since thats around when things stabilized.
The electoral college makes s3nse for a federated system, but the US has largely eroded states as a meaningful level of governance.
IDK about that. The electoral seems to be in 0retty good shape at this time for Harris, but best to ignore it for now
As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we’re at…
Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/arizona/
Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/nevada/
New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/new-mexico/
Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/georgia/
North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…/pennsylvania/
Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/michigan/
Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/wisconsin/
Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/minnesota/
Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.
Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.
Let’s look at the map:
So, of the “Undecideds”, PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.
PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.
So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.
If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.
Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.
God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.
Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.
I don’t even have a big board!
CoelacanthI can’t believe it’s this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can’t handle another Trump presidency.
Then make plans to move out of the country. A 2024 win for liberalism means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.
Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.
Who said anything about legally!
To where? Right wing fascism is on the rise pretty much everywhere.
jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure.
I’m starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don’t want to call it bias, it’s just a blind spot that their model isn’t getting all the input for.
Of course it’s not like anyone else is doing a better job either.
Polling is inherently problematic every time you see they polled “likely voters” as opposed to “registered voters”.
If they’re self selecting who they consider to be “likely”, it’s going to have a skewed result.
Likely voters are those that have voted before, that’s what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they’re the more accurate people to be polling.
And discounts first time voters.
Some even only count people who voted in the last 2 elections.
Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.
Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it’s a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.
If Diaper wins I’m done. Just move to the boonies and just go full media blackout until 2028 or when the zombies show up
The boonies are full of red hats. That’s the last place you’ll want to be
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em?
Deep cover infiltration!