OK, here we go: Visualising the #Worldcon #Hugo2024 voting results.
Alternative Title: Why ranked voting matters.
As a quick explanation, the last placed candidate in each round is eliminated and their votes transferred to the next candidate on each ballot.
This is the first place ballot only, the second place is calculated by treating the winner as eliminated and rerunning the election. I have not included the final round runoff against "No Award" as this year that's all uninteresting.
Doing this in reverse order of the announcements on the night, because you were going to scroll straight to the best novel anyway weren't you?
Relatively uninteresting compared to some others: "Some Desperate Glory" starts out in first and stays there. A good start for "The Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi" but it's just not getting the transfers from other books as they're eliminated.
Mostly an SF/Fantasy split I think, but surprised by the number of Witch King transfers to Translation State
Best Novella next.
Lots of first round votes for "Seeds of Mercury" but just doesn't get the transfers that "Thornhedge" does. Pretty obvious language/country split here, but a very good demonstration of how a lot of people voting for one thing first doesn't mean it'll win. This is why Sad Puppies couldn't win anything.
This one broke the graphs!
Best Graphic Story is wild. I have no idea what's going on here. I'd guess it's something stylistic/genre based but I don't know much about this.
Lots of transfers from Witches of WWII to Wonder Woman bumps it up early one, but then Wonder Woman fails to get any further significant transfers. Three Body Problem starts first but Saga 11 eventually wins on transfers.
The two Best Dramatic Presentation awards.
Short form looks messy but it's not surprising when you delve into it: Doctor Who transfers to Doctor who and Star Trek to Star Trek.
Long form was close, but Nimona transfers to D&D over Spider-Man are unsurprising.
(I need to recheck best related work, something has gone wrong in the data - there were odd voting patterns for this one and it may have found an edge case in my code)
Best Game, Best Editor short and long form.
Best game wasn't even close. They didn't need to run all the rounds because it already had over half the votes!
And Lodestar and Astounding awards, which aren't Hugos.
Credit to @ajlanes for suggesting visualising the data like this, and @nwhyte and the team for some very prompt release of the detailed #Hugos2024 data. Running the votes for this much data is a major task!
@offby1 @ajlanes @johncoxon It’s a copy-paste from the PDF into a text file, then a python script that converts that into votes in each round in a format suitable for Sankeymatic.
Plan to tidy it up and stick on GitHub in the next few days.
(Input data does need some manual tidying up to remove the final runoff round and deal with weird PDF ligatures)
Chinese reposts FYI:
https://weibo.com/5726230680/OsoEft92c
https://weibo.com/5726230680/OsoEE0UWe
The poster is one of my Chinese friends, although he found these without me telling him about them (I imagine he got them from File 770).
Reposters include another of my friends who was a Hugo finalist last year and this; and the academic who was the author of the ineligible BRW last year, due to one contributor being on the Hugo team (although no longer by the time the con actually happened).
One of my other friends was even inspired to copy your methodology to do BRW.
https://weibo.com/7504217178/OsrmwCDsL (third image in that post)
Sorry for coming late. Just finished my account creation; still getting familiar with this novel platform between tweaking my own data.
I've developed some Excel formulae to help generating the text inputs to SankeyMATIC. Attaching a sample w/ src, FYI. It's still for BRW, but today I improved my Excel to analyze the compititions for the first three standings (instead of just the first place)
Thanks to @ErsatzCulture 's invitation and @zoe 's inspiration and sharing!
Exactly. That is the least ugly workaround I can find. I wrote a logic branch specifically for this.
Zoë O'Connell
Myrion
Leo Breebaart
Alexandra Lanes
Tero Ykspetäjä
Irina
Chris is.
John Coxon
ErsatzCulture
prograft